组会记录Group Meetings

2026-10-20 下午2026-10-20 (afternoon)

主线从"机制"推进到"规律"的一天：四支候选规律在 M2 能段 4 上依次被检验（LAW-1 C、LAW-2 D、LAW-3 DQ、LAW-4 MIX3d），另外两支在能段 1 上（C 与 D 重拟合）。打分手本身错了两次并修好（R094 的零通过率基准、R100 的零尺度错误）。最后用一支独立的评分器（NULL-1，R103）给出唯一结论：四条候选全部被拒，D 最好（48/72 对零假设均值 63.3，p = 0.0015）。宽度这一半可以推广，中心一半不能（R104）；中心项的位置假设被驳回（R105），评分器的验证被加上限定（R107）；PI 随即批准了符号回归试点与混合规律任务。A day the main line moved from mechanism to law: four candidate laws were tested in order on M2 band 4 (LAW-1 C, LAW-2 D, LAW-3 DQ, LAW-4 MIX3d) and two more on band 1 (C and a D refit). The scoring itself was wrong twice and fixed (R094's null pass rate, R100's null scale error). One independent scorer (NULL-1, R103) gives the single verdict: every candidate is rejected, D is best (48/72 against a null mean of 63.3, p = 0.0015). The width half generalises; the centre half does not (R104); the position hypothesis for the centre term is refuted (R105) and the scorer's validation is qualified (R107). The PI then approved a symbolic-regression trial and a hybrid-law task.

成果 / ResultsResults

• R092（RT-87 分诊，已复算）：R089 的两条读数收窄——中心差距在 \(\hat{S}\) 2.2–9.5 成立（三簇 t(2) 区间），在 9.5–19 未确立；"宽度大 0.05–0.14"降级为建议（3/3 同号，但所有区间都含 0）。两臂用同一个 SAS ELLBETA@3250 模板，真实差别是能段积分模板对单能模板（0.4 / 1.0 / 1.6 %）。R092 (RT-87 triaged, replayed): two readings of R089 are narrowed — the centre gap holds at \(\hat{S}\) 2.2–9.5 (three-cluster t(2) intervals) and is not established at 9.5–19; the "width larger by 0.05–0.14" clause is downgraded to a suggestion (same sign in 3/3, but every interval contains 0). Both arms use the same SAS ELLBETA@3250 template, so the real difference is a band-integrated against a mono template (0.4 / 1.0 / 1.6 %).
• R093（LAW-1，已复算）：PI 主线规律 \(p(\mathrm{DET\_ML} \mid \hat{S}, b, \mathrm{index})\) 的第一次参数化未被接受——留出格通过数 A 0/72、B 4/72、C 10/72（C 用 23 个参数）；残差仍有均值结构，锚随 b 漂移，68 % 覆盖率摆动约 10 pp；B 的增益来自一个 0.8\(\cdot\)V3p 的下限。R093 (LAW-1, replayed): the first parameterisation of the PI main-line law \(p(\mathrm{DET\_ML} \mid \hat{S}, b, \mathrm{index})\) is not accepted — held-out cell passes A 0/72, B 4/72, C 10/72 (C uses 23 parameters); the residual still has mean structure, the anchor drifts with b and the 68 % coverage swings by about 10 pp; B's gain comes from a 0.8\(\cdot\)V3p floor.
• R094（RT-89，已复算）：给通过数一个噪声底——一条完美的规律在同样的 72 格里平均也只通过约 61 格（第 5 百分位 48），所以 10/72 远在噪声底之下。LAW-1 的自助区间列切错片（判定本身是点值，不受影响）。R094 (RT-89, replayed): the pass count gets a noise floor — a perfect law passes only about 61 of the same 72 cells on average (5th percentile 48), so 10/72 is far below even the noise floor. LAW-1's bootstrap interval columns were mis-sliced (the verdicts themselves are point-based and unaffected).
• R095（LAW-2，已复算）：候选 D（288 个参数，\((\log \hat{S}, \log b)\) 网格上的制表修正）通过 48/72 留出格（LAW-1 C 10/72），宽度 68/72、锚 12/12，24 个失败全部在均值 z 上；48 正好等于完美规律的第 5 百分位（均值 60.8）。R095 (LAW-2, replayed): candidate D (288 parameters, a tabulated correction on the \((\log \hat{S}, \log b)\) grid) passes 48/72 held-out cells (LAW-1 C 10/72), width 68/72, anchor 12/12, with all 24 failures on mean z; 48 is exactly the perfect law's 5th percentile (mean 60.8).
• R096（LAW-3，已复算）：D 的 24 个均值失败是系统的——全部为负、集中在中计数、随 index 增长；二次 index（DQ 42/72）与 CV 带宽（46/72）都救不回来。（R100 撤回本条的量级表述：全局 Q 352.6 对"完美规律"零假设中位数 39、p = 0.000 是尺度错误，见下。失败的符号格局成立，显著性开放。）R096 (LAW-3, replayed): D's 24 mean failures are systematic — all negative, concentrated at mid count and growing with index; a quadratic index (DQ 42/72) and CV bandwidth (46/72) do not help. (R100 withdraws this entry's magnitude statement: the global Q 352.6 against a "perfect-law" null median of 39 with p = 0.000 is a scale error, see below. The sign pattern of the failures stands; its significance is open.)
• R097（LAW-M2B1，已复算）：同一条规律在 M2 能段 1 上更差——C 4/72（能段 4 是 10/72），对完美规律零假设约 55–60.5/72。R097 (LAW-M2B1, replayed): the same law on M2 band 1 is worse — C 4/72 (band 4: 10/72) against a perfect-law null of about 55–60.5/72.
• R098（RT-88，已复算）："独立模拟修正过修是因为拟合器"是约定假象——模拟那个 +0.31 % 是均匀权重、拟合位置的；换成 L1 的名义位置 + S^−2.5 约定，同一批行给 +1.19 %。只有约定相配才能比较模拟与 L1。R098 (RT-88, replayed): "the independent-simulation correction over-corrects because of the fitter" is a convention artefact — the simulation's +0.31 % is uniform-weight, fitted-position; at L1's nominal-position + S^−2.5 convention the same rows give +1.19 %. Simulation and L1 may only be compared at matched conventions.
• R099（RT-90，已复算）："M2 能段 1 需要新的核网格"是错的——results/e114_grid_M2_band{1..5}.csv 本来就在；规律跑在 1,066,923 行上（不是 3.6 M）；BG_MAP_EML 在 6 级 b 网格两端之外。R099 (RT-90, replayed): "M2 band 1 needs a new kernel grid" is false — results/e114_grid_M2_band{1..5}.csv already exist; the law ran on 1,066,923 rows (not 3.6 M); BG_MAP_EML lies outside the 6-level b grid at both ends.
• R100（RT-92，已复算）：撤回 R096 的"D 以 p = 0 被全局拒绝"——那个零假设是单一 index（72 项）而观测 Q 是 288 项；对 eval_lib 的合并零假设 p = 0.75，对 RT-92 的合并零假设 p = 0.0025（共享重加权）/ < 0.0005（独立）。24 个失败的符号格局成立，其显著性开放。R100 (RT-92, replayed): withdraws R096's "D globally rejected at p = 0" — that null was single-index (72 terms) against a 288-term observed Q; against eval_lib's pooled null p = 0.75, against RT-92's pooled nulls p = 0.0025 (shared reweighting) / < 0.0005 (independent). The sign pattern of the 24 failures stands; its significance is open.
• R101（LAW-4，已复算）：生成式混合规律 MIX3d 不优于 D——35/72 格（D 48/72），锚 11/12；Q 369.8（零假设问题同 R100）；在它自己的位置簇零假设下 p = 0.72。R101 (LAW-4, replayed): the generative mixture law MIX3d is not better than D — 35/72 cells (D 48/72), anchor 11/12; Q 369.8 (the null question as in R100); p = 0.72 under its own position-cluster null.
• R102（LAW-D-M2B1，已复算）：D 搬到能段 1 不可迁移——重拟合 37/72，能段 4 系数原样搬过去 17/72（对完美规律约 60.5，第 5 百分位 52）；负的中心残差重复出现且更大。R102 (LAW-D-M2B1, replayed): D does not transfer to band 1 — refit 37/72, the unchanged band-4 coefficients 17/72 (against a perfect law of about 60.5, 5th percentile 52); the negative centre residual repeats and is larger.
• R103（NULL-1，已复算）：一支被验证过的评分器（在"恰好为真"的数据上 p 均匀，K-S p 0.59 / 250 个重复）给出唯一结论：四条候选全部被拒——C 10 对零假设均值 62.6 / 第 5 百分位 55，D 48 对 63.3 / 56（p_pass 0.0015），DQ 42，MIX3d 35，能段 1 的 D 37 对 61.3 / 55；所有 p_q = 0。此前"能不能接受完全取决于零假设"的分歧就此结束。eval_lib.gof() 的位置重采样零假设连 10/72 的 C 都接受（p = 0.73），不能再用作验收零假设。R103 (NULL-1, replayed): one validated scorer (uniform p on exactly-true data, K-S p 0.59 over 250 replicas) gives the single verdict: every candidate is rejected — C 10 against a null mean of 62.6 / 5th percentile 55, D 48 against 63.3 / 56 (p_pass 0.0015), DQ 42, MIX3d 35, and band-1 D 37 against 61.3 / 55; every p_q = 0. The earlier disagreement, where acceptance depended entirely on the null, ends here. eval_lib.gof()'s position-resampling null accepts even the 10/72 candidate C (p = 0.73), so it may no longer be used as the acceptance null.
• R104（RT-91b，已复算）：D 的 48/72 拆开看——宽度这一半可以推广，中心这一半不能；24 个均值失败是真的（24/24 超过 2 倍正确抽样噪声，23/24 超过 3 倍）；12/12 的锚完全取决于位置 14 被分到哪一半（强制放到留出半则塌到 8/12）；没有拟合/留出泄漏；IRON RULE 在数据层成立。R104 (RT-91b, replayed): D's 48/72 taken apart — the width half generalises, the centre half does not; the 24 mean failures are real (24/24 beyond 2\(\times\) the correct sampling noise, 23/24 beyond 3\(\times\)); the 12/12 anchor hinges entirely on which half position 14 falls into (forcing it onto the held half collapses it to 8/12); there is no fit/held leakage; the IRON RULE holds at the data level.
• 位置不是缺失的中心变量（CENTRE-POS 任务）：平滑的加性位置项（离轴 / g_pos / 支撑 / 方位角）在留出半把均值失败从 24 个推到 58–72 个；逐位置自由偏移不能推广；唯一有用的形式（逐格 \(\times\) 位置交互）的全部收益都来自逐格中心重标定，位置斜率没有贡献。负均值 z 是逐格（计数箱）中心偏置，部分由少数视场边缘异常位置驱动，不是平滑的视场几何趋势。R105（CENTRE-POS，已复算）：位置假设被驳回——平滑位置协变量让留出均值 z 更差（失败 24 \(\to\) 58–72）；逐位置自由偏移不能推广；唯一有用的形式是逐格中心截距（18 个参数），它把失败从 24 降到 11、负和从 −2.28 到 −0.80，而离轴斜率不加分（g_pos 更差，14）。R106（RT-93 分诊）：LAW-4 的 Q 部分重复 R100 的尺度错误；比较在同样的行与格上成立；MIX3d 的亏缺在宽度/覆盖率，而它在 index 层面的中心行为优于 D。R107（RT-94 分诊）：NULL-1 的判定全部成立（每条规律在每个替代零假设下仍被拒），但其验证被限定——pos_sd 的恢复是循环论证；零假设跨格独立抽取位置效应，而数据的跨格相关为 +0.44（通过数零假设 sd 小约 30 %，D 的 p_pass 变约 10 倍，无判定翻转）；合成真值缺少重尾；p_q 是 < 1/2000 而不是 0。Position is not the missing centre variable (the CENTRE-POS task): a smooth additive position term (off-axis / g_pos / support / azimuth) pushes the held-out mean failures from 24 to 58–72; a per-position free offset does not generalise; the only form that helps (a per-cell \(\times\) position interaction) derives all of its benefit from a plain per-cell centre recalibration, with the position slope contributing nothing. The negative mean z is a per-cell (count-bin) centre bias, partly driven by a few FoV-edge outlier positions, not a smooth FoV-geometry trend.R105 (CENTRE-POS, replayed): the position hypothesis is refuted — smooth position covariates make the held-out mean z worse (failures 24 \(\to\) 58–72); per-position free offsets do not generalise; the only form that helps is a per-cell centre intercept (18 parameters), which takes the failures from 24 to 11 and the negative sum from −2.28 to −0.80, while the off-axis slope adds nothing (g_pos is worse, 14). R106 (RT-93 triaged): LAW-4's Q part repeats R100's scale error; the comparison holds on identical rows and cells; MIX3d's deficit is width/coverage, while its index-level centre behaviour is better than D's. R107 (RT-94 triaged): NULL-1's verdicts all stand (every law is still rejected under every alternative null), but its validation is qualified — the pos_sd recovery is circular; the null draws position effects independently across cells while the data show cross-cell correlation +0.44 (the pass-count null sd about 30 % too small, D's p_pass changing by about 10\(\times\), no verdict flips); the synthetic truth lacks heavy tails; and p_q is < 1/2000, not 0.

工作 / WorkWork

• 四支规律任务当天完成并被复核：LAW-1（C，M2 能段 4）、LAW-M2B1（C，能段 1）、LAW-2（D/DQ 与 E，能段 4）、LAW-3（DQ 与 CV 带宽）、LAW-4（MIX3d）、LAW-D-M2B1（重拟合与迁移）与 NULL-1（评分器）。RT-87、RT-88、RT-89、RT-90、RT-92、RT-91b 六支红队当天分诊；RT-93 与 RT-94 在跑。Four law tasks finished and were re-checked the same day: LAW-1 (C, M2 band 4), LAW-M2B1 (C, band 1), LAW-2 (D/DQ and E, band 4), LAW-3 (DQ and CV bandwidth), LAW-4 (MIX3d), LAW-D-M2B1 (refit and transfer) and NULL-1 (the scorer). Six red teams were triaged the same day (RT-87, RT-88, RT-89, RT-90, RT-92, RT-91b); RT-93 and RT-94 are running.
• PI 批准符号回归试点（2026-10-20 18:47 EDT，04）：在 LAW-2 D 的中心/宽度残差面 \((\ln \hat{S}, \ln b, \mathrm{index})\) 上拟合一个短解析式，拟合半训练、NULL-1 评分器留出打分，再测迁到 M2 能段 1。两条臂：PySR（Julia，无 LLM）与 SRHarness（LLM 后端 = NIM 模型）。PI 原话："可以测试，用nim model"。已派出 SR-pysr、SR-srharness 与 CENTRE-POS。The PI approved a symbolic-regression trial (2026-10-20 18:47 EDT, 04): fit a short analytic formula on LAW-2 D's centre/width residual surface \((\ln \hat{S}, \ln b, \mathrm{index})\), train on the fit half, score held-out with the NULL-1 scorer, then test transfer to M2 band 1. Two arms: PySR (Julia, no LLM) and SRHarness (LLM backend = a NIM model). The PI's words: “可以测试，用nim model”. SR-pysr, SR-srharness and CENTRE-POS were dispatched.
• 在跑（不引用数字）：符号回归试点（PySR 与 SRHarness，后端为 NIM 模型，均有中期报告）、混合规律任务（LAW-HYBRID：D 的宽度 + MIX3d 的中心）、RT-95（审 NULL-1 的验证）。CENTRE-POS 与 RT-93/RT-94 已完成（R105、R106、R107）。08_RUNNING.md 已更新到 rev 109。Running (no numbers quoted): the symbolic-regression trial (PySR and SRHarness, NIM backend, both with interim reports), the hybrid-law task (LAW-HYBRID: D's width + MIX3d's centre) and RT-95 (auditing NULL-1's validation). CENTRE-POS and RT-93/RT-94 are finished (R105, R106, R107). 08_RUNNING.md is at revision 109.

问题 / ProblemsProblems

• 调度方自己接受了一条一小时后被撤回的记录（R096）。16:14 EDT 的 heartbeat 把 LAW-3 的"全局 Q 352.6 对完美规律零假设中位数 39 / p95 72、p = 0.000 \(\to\) D 被全局拒绝"写进 07；17:57 EDT 的 RT-92（R100）复算发现那个零假设是单一 index 的 72 项而观测 Q 是 288 项，p = 0.000 不是 p 值。教训：任何全局 Q 的 p 值必须先核对 n_terms(观测) 是否等于 n_terms(零假设)，再写进记录；已入 PITFALLS。The dispatcher itself accepted a record that was withdrawn an hour later (R096). The 16:14 EDT heartbeat wrote LAW-3's "global Q 352.6 against a perfect-law null median of 39 / p95 72, p = 0.000 \(\to\) D globally rejected" into 07; at 17:57 EDT RT-92 (R100) replayed it and found that null was a single-index 72 terms against a 288-term observed Q, so p = 0.000 is not a p-value. Lesson: before any global Q's p-value goes into a record, check that n_terms(observed) equals n_terms(null); recorded in PITFALLS.
• 任务简报里的 virgo 守卫路径是错的。当天多份简报（含 DOMAIN-INV 与 RT-90 引用的那份）写成 bash ~/ai_tmp/detml_v2/virgo_guard.sh | grep -q status=READY && <job>——这是 lang 本地的形式，而该脚本在 virgo 上，lang 上不存在（目录里只有一个 RT63_hermes）。RT-90 与 DOMAIN-INV 因此只做了只读列举（uptime、df、du、ls、md5sum）且未经守卫，并在报告里记为一条 minor objection。正确形式是 ssh virgo 'bash ~/ai_tmp/detml_v2/virgo_guard.sh' | grep -q status=READY && ssh virgo '<job>'。已在本阶段记入简报模板。The virgo guard path in the task briefs was wrong. Several briefs that day (including the one DOMAIN-INV and RT-90 cite) read bash ~/ai_tmp/detml_v2/virgo_guard.sh | grep -q status=READY && <job> — a lang-local form, while the script lives on virgo and does not exist on lang (the directory holds only RT63_hermes). RT-90 and DOMAIN-INV therefore ran strictly read-only listings (uptime, df, du, ls, md5sum) ungated and recorded it as a minor objection. The correct form is ssh virgo 'bash ~/ai_tmp/detml_v2/virgo_guard.sh' | grep -q status=READY && ssh virgo '<job>'. Noted in the brief template this stage.
• RT-89 发现的区间切错片缺陷被带进了 LAW-2 的验收表。acceptance_D/E.csv 里每个 *_lo/*_hi 列是一次自助重复的格间展布，不是该格统计量的区间；LAW-3 的 *_null_sd 与全局 GOF 也继承同一缺陷。判定（点值）不受影响，但所有引用的区间都不可信。The interval mis-slice defect RT-89 found was carried into LAW-2's acceptance tables. Every *_lo/*_hi column in acceptance_D/E.csv is a between-cell spread of one bootstrap replicate, not an interval on that cell's statistic; LAW-3's *_null_sd and its global GOF inherit the same defect. The verdicts (point values) are unaffected, but every quoted interval is untrustworthy.
• LAW-2 的头条归因被推翻。报告说"朴素的 w 加权中心拟合给 12/72、锚 0/12"，实际同一个变体给 48/72、锚 12/12，与正式候选 D 完全相同；12/72 对应另一个变体（z 单位）且没有留档产物。LAW-2's headline attribution is refuted. The report says "the naive w-weighted centre fit gives 12/72 with anchor 0/12"; the same variant actually gives 48/72 with anchor 12/12, identical to the shipped candidate D; the 12/72 figure corresponds to a different variant (z units) with no saved artifact.

待 PI 决定 / For the PIFor the PI

• PI 已批准（2026-10-20 18:47 EDT）：符号回归试点（PySR 基线 + SRHarness，LLM 后端限 NIM 模型），NULL-1 完成后派出。待 PI 决定：既然一支被验证的评分器拒收了全部四条候选规律，主线是否从"拟合一个规律"改为"先解决中心项"——CENTRE-POS 已给出否定答案（位置不是缺失变量），中心偏置是逐格（计数箱）性质。Approved by the PI (2026-10-20 18:47 EDT): the symbolic-regression trial (PySR baseline plus SRHarness, LLM backend restricted to NIM models), dispatched after NULL-1 finished. For the PI to decide: now that one validated scorer rejects all four candidate laws, should the main line move from "fit a law" to "solve the centre term first" — CENTRE-POS already gives a negative answer (position is not the missing variable) and the centre bias is a per-cell (count-bin) property.

2026-10-182026-10-18

宽度主线的一天：W3 与 W4 双双收尾，W5 发出，下午又收尾 W5 并发出RT-56、RT-57、RT-58、RT-59 四支红队。当天十一条修订记录（R047–R061）里最重要的更正是调度方自己撤回了自己一小时前的结论（R051 的"未确立"在 06:56Z 被 R052 的"可观测核上窄 2–4 %"取代）；手册第 20 阶段的修复清单也部署上线。每条数字都从 cited 记录里原样抄来。A day on the width main line: W3 and W4 both closed, W5 launched, and in the afternoon W5 closed too and four red teams (RT-56, RT-57, RT-58, RT-59) were launched. The most important correction among the day's eleven revision records (R047–R061) is the dispatcher withdrawing its own hour-old conclusion (R051's "not established" was superseded at 06:56Z by R052's "narrow by 2–4 % on the observable core"); the handbook stage-20 fix list was also deployed. Every number is copied verbatim from the cited record.

成果 / ResultsResults

• 玩具条件均值被 E088 \(\delta_0\) 关闭到 DET_ML \(\gtrsim\) 14（R047）The toy conditional mean is closed by the E088 \(\delta_0\) down to DET_ML \(\gtrsim\) 14 (R047)：红队检查的分诊（07 R047）。红队用项目自带的无参数修正 E088 \(\delta_0\)（Cox–Snell 偏置加曲率，用模板族的精确位置导数，逐行在 \(\hat{S}\) 处取值）推翻了"没有任何均值公式通过"：6 个判据格中 4 个的 mean z 落到 −0.002…+0.018（N = 10,000），只有两个 DET_ML \(\approx\) 8 的格子不通过（+0.058、+0.070）；调度方用自己的样本与种子复跑两格，结果一致。完整判据（均值加宽度）3 of 6，因为 (0.08, 15.32) 的 std z 是 0.969。随库默认的 np.gradient 导数场不行：少修正 0.09–0.15 \(\Delta C\)。来源：reviews/RT-47_triage_claude.md、cognition-os/03_TRUST_TABLE.md T231（Provisional）。Red-team triage (07 R047). The red team overturned "no mean formula passes" with the project's own parameter-free E088 \(\delta_0\) (Cox–Snell bias plus curvature, exact position derivatives of the template family, per row at \(\hat{S}\)): mean z falls to −0.002…+0.018 at 4 of the 6 key cells (N = 10,000), failing only at the two DET_ML \(\approx\) 8 cells (+0.058, +0.070); the dispatcher's replay with its own rows and seed agrees. On the full key (mean and std) it is 3 of 6, because (0.08, 15.32) has std z 0.969. The library default np.gradient derivative fields do not pass: they under-correct by 0.09–0.15 \(\Delta C\). Source: reviews/RT-47_triage_claude.md, cognition-os/03_TRUST_TABLE.md T231 (Provisional).
• 截断支撑矩重新限定范围：位置自由时只有"在拟合位置渲染模板"接近（R048）The truncated-support moments are re-scoped: with the position free only "template rendered at the fitted position" is close (R048)：分诊（07 R048）。"掩膜矩在 27 格全部通过"只对位置固定成立；位置自由时按居中模板打分失败（mean −2.2…−3.4，std 2.8–4.4），改在拟合位置 \((\hat{x}, \hat{y})\) 渲染模板后 mean z +0.10…+0.16、std z 1.03–1.05（N = 1000，开放，待 N = 10,000 加 \(\delta_0\) 检验）。背景盒一项的均值只在 \(N_{bg} \geq 1000\) 时修正（N_bg = 100 时 4 of 6 不通过）；"可行的附加方差"其实是按真 b 展开的 oracle 构造。来源：reviews/RT-48_triage_claude.md；T229 items 3–4 re-scoped。Triage (07 R048). "The masked moments pass all 27 cells" holds with the position fixed only; with the position free, centred-template scoring fails (mean −2.2…−3.4, std 2.8–4.4), while the template rendered at the fitted position \((\hat{x}, \hat{y})\) gives mean z +0.10…+0.16, std z 1.03–1.05 (N = 1000, open; to be tested at N = 10,000 with \(\delta_0\)). The background-box mean is fixed only for \(N_{bg} \geq 1000\) (4 of 6 fail at N_bg = 100); the "feasible" added variance is an oracle construction expanded at the true b. Source: reviews/RT-48_triage_claude.md; T229 items 3–4 re-scoped.
• L1 在 6–10 的"宽度随 b 变化"降为 Questioned（R049）The L1 "b-dependent width" at 6–10 is Questioned (R049)：分诊（07 R049）。用 E074 有效模板加 PSF 加权或像素背景后，6–10 的宽度是 0.929，b 梯度只剩 +0.016（记录值 +0.086）；逐位置 +0.020 \(\pm\) 0.011。分解：模板换成有效模板消掉约一半（+0.086 → +0.037），标量背景换成 PSF 加权 b 消掉其余大部分（→ +0.017），像素图本身贡献 \(\approx\) 0。约 5–7 % 的偏窄仍在，成因未明，且不是 beyond-Fisher 位置项。来源：reviews/RT-49_triage_claude.md；T228 b-dependence clause Questioned。Triage (07 R049). With the E074 effective template and a PSF-weighted or pixel-map background the 6–10 width is 0.929 and the b-gradient only +0.016 (recorded +0.086); per position +0.020 \(\pm\) 0.011. Decomposition: switching to the effective template removes about half (+0.086 → +0.037), the scalar background to a PSF-weighted b removes most of the rest (→ +0.017), the pixel map itself contributes \(\approx\) 0. The \(\approx\) 5–7 % narrowing stays open, cause unknown, and is not the beyond-Fisher position term. Source: reviews/RT-49_triage_claude.md; T228 b-dependence clause Questioned.
• L0 近行的"通过"是 r̂ < 2 px 的合并陈述，内部有强 r̂ 趋势（R050）The L0 near-row "pass" is a pooled statement over r̂ < 2 px with a strong r̂ trend inside (R050)：分诊（07 R050）。近行宽度通过是把 r̂ < 2 px 合并后的结果：内部未修正宽度从 0.865（r̂ < 0.5）降到 0.751（r̂ 1.5–2），均值从 +0.33 走到 −0.27（6–10 窗口）；调度方复算发现均值趋势（红队漏报）。E088 精确 \(\delta_0\) 把近行均值残差从 +0.13 降到 +0.088（6–10）与 +0.010（10–20），但没有归零；np.gradient 导数少修正 0.29 z / 0.22 z。\(\sigma_{ratio}\) 的转移本身复算到 2e-16。来源：reviews/RT-50_triage_claude.md；T230 qualified。Triage (07 R050). The near-row width pass is a statement pooled over r̂ < 2 px: inside it the uncorrected width falls from 0.865 (r̂ < 0.5) to 0.751 (r̂ 1.5–2) and the mean runs from +0.33 to −0.27 (the 6–10 window); the mean trend was found by the dispatcher's replay (the red team missed it). The E088 exact \(\delta_0\) lowers the near-row mean residual from +0.13 to +0.088 (6–10) and +0.010 (10–20) but not to zero; np.gradient derivatives under-correct by 0.29 z / 0.22 z. The \(\sigma_{ratio}\) transfer itself reproduces to 2e-16. Source: reviews/RT-50_triage_claude.md; T230 qualified.
• R045 的"窄侧偏离"被撤回：重尾 SE 与拟合器失败行（R051）R045's "narrow-side departure" is withdrawn: heavy-tail SE and fitter-failure rows (R051)：W4 codexnim 臂审阅（07 R051）。N = 20,000（种子 20261021）复跑 (15.32, 0.08) 得 std z 0.997（两半 1.000 / 0.994）；z 的峰度 5.9 使 10k 行的 SE 应为 0.011（不是 0.007），bootstrap [0.978, 1.021]；三次运行 0.969 / 0.975 / 0.997 与此一致。低计数格里含拟合器失败行（\(\Delta C\) < 0、拟合位置跑出 15\(\times\)15 图外），它们能把 std 移动最多 0.015。调度方据此把自己一小时前记录的 R045"窄侧偏离"改判为"未确立"。来源：reviews/W4_codexnim_claude.md；T232。W4 codexnim arm reviewed (07 R051). An N = 20,000 re-run (seed 20261021) at (15.32, 0.08) gives std z 0.997 (halves 1.000 / 0.994); the z kurtosis 5.9 makes the 10k-row SE 0.011 (not 0.007), bootstrap [0.978, 1.021]; three runs 0.969 / 0.975 / 0.997 are consistent with that. The low-count cells contain fitter-failure rows (\(\Delta C\) < 0, fitted position outside the 15\(\times\)15 image) that move the std by up to 0.015. The dispatcher therefore re-graded its own hour-old R045 "narrow-side departure" as "not established". Source: reviews/W4_codexnim_claude.md; T232.
• T226 的"只有截尾主体被校准"被改写：原始矩其实有限（R053）T226's "only the trimmed bulk is calibrated" is rewritten: the raw moments are finite after all (R053)：红队检查的分诊（07 R053，本阶段收尾时并入）。"原始矩不存在"是玩具牛顿拟合器在近空图像上发散（\(\Delta C\) < 0、\(\hat{S} \to 10^{13}\)，0.03–12.7 % 的重复）；有界拟合消除每个灾难行后，全量原始矩有限且校准：每个 b 匹配格 mean z 在 \(\pm\) 0.016 内（典型 DET_ML 6–20，两个种子）；b \(\geq\) 0.02 时 std 0.987–1.011，b = 0.005 在 DET_ML 6–10 偏窄 1–3 %；右尾短于正态（q99.9 % 2.3–3.0 对 3.09）。R061 修订：这些是固定 \(S_{true}\) 格子的格均值；按可观测 \(\hat{S}\) 分箱后 b \(\geq\) 0.02 的 std z 在 1 的 2–3 % 内、mean z 在 \(\pm\) 0.09 内，b = 0.005 且 \(\hat{S} \lesssim\) 3 是离散格子（mean \(-1.22\)…\(+0.86\)、std 0.18–1.13、无右尾），\(\hat{S} = 0\) 原子占 17–23 %。来源：07 R053、R061；reviews/RT-51_triage_claude.md、reviews/RT-57_triage_claude.md。A red-team triage (07 R053, folded in at the end of this stage). The "raw moments do not exist" was the toy Newton fitter diverging on near-empty images (\(\Delta C\) < 0, \(\hat{S} \to 10^{13}\), 0.03–12.7 % of reps); with a bounded fit every catastrophic row disappears and the full raw moments are finite and calibrated: mean z within \(\pm\) 0.016 at every b-matched cell (typical DET_ML 6–20, two seeds); std 0.987–1.011 at b \(\geq\) 0.02, and b = 0.005 at DET_ML 6–10 narrow by 1–3 %; the right tail is short of normal (q99.9 % 2.3–3.0 vs 3.09). R061 amends it: these are fixed-\(S_{true}\) cell averages; binned by the observable \(\hat{S}\), at b \(\geq\) 0.02 the std z is within 2–3 % of 1 and the mean within \(\pm\) 0.09, and at b = 0.005 and \(\hat{S} \lesssim\) 3 the law is a discrete lattice (mean \(-1.22\)…\(+0.86\), std 0.18–1.13, no right tail), with the \(\hat{S} = 0\) atom at 17–23 %. Sources: 07 R053, R061; reviews/RT-51_triage_claude.md, reviews/RT-57_triage_claude.md.
• W3 与 W4 关闭；玩具可观测核上窄 2–4 %，\(\sigma_{ratio}\) 的 L0 通过被质疑（R052）W3 and W4 closed; the toy observable core is narrow by 2–4 %, and \(\sigma_{ratio}\)'s L0 pass is questioned (R052)：W4 Hermes 臂 + W3 Hermes 臂审阅（07 R052，取代 R051 的宽度句子）。两臂的行用同一条打分代码：在可观测核 r̂ \(\leq\) 4 px（97.5–99.8 % 的行，峰度 \(\approx\) −0.1）上，std z(\(\delta_0\)) = 0.984 / 0.974（(0.08, 15.32)）、0.965 / 0.964（(0.02, 6.63)）、0.961 / 0.961（(0.08, 10.8)）（codexnim / Hermes，SE 各 0.005）——即 std z − 1 = −0.039…−0.016，窄 2–4 %，两臂一致；全行 std（0.976–1.064）由 0.1–2.5 % 的远行（涨落锁定、拟合器失败）决定，Hermes (0.08, 10.8) 的峰度 205 来自 12 行。V2 与 V2b 方向对但把核过校正到 1.09–1.65。V2b 就是 E171 的 \(\sigma_{ratio}\)：库里的实现永远用像素模板的 np.gradient 导数——放到玩具核上给 1.024（(0.08, 25.23)，那里 V_3p 已是对的 0.998）与 1.10 / 1.18 / 1.30（三个低格），所以 T230 的 L0 近行通过在玩具上得不到支持，待 W5 判定是 np.gradient 导数误差还是玩具与 L0 的真实差异。W4 关闭：无参数公式都不达判据；\(\delta_1\) 两臂都排除；\(\delta_0\) + \(V_{3p}\) 是 DET_ML \(\gtrsim\) 14 的最佳均值律。W3 关闭：Hermes 臂在全部 2.546 M 收敛行上确认近行（r̂ < 2）偏窄是拟合器性质（未修正 0.87–0.90 于 6–10、0.93–0.96 于 10–20），但未给宽度公式（\(V_{2p}\) 与 \(1 - \rho^2\) 被它自己的数字否定）；E171 的 \(\sigma_{ratio}\) 仍是最佳臂。来源：reviews/W4_hermes_claude.md、reviews/W3_hermes_claude.md；T233（新，Provisional）、T230、T232（Questioned）。W4 Hermes arm + W3 Hermes arm reviewed (07 R052, superseding R051's width sentence). Both arms' rows scored with one code path: on the observable core r̂ \(\leq\) 4 px (97.5–99.8 % of rows, kurtosis \(\approx\) −0.1), std z(\(\delta_0\)) = 0.984 / 0.974 at (0.08, 15.32), 0.965 / 0.964 at (0.02, 6.63), 0.961 / 0.961 at (0.08, 10.8) (codexnim / Hermes, SE 0.005 each) — i.e. std z − 1 = −0.039…−0.016, narrow by 2–4 %, arms agree; the all-row std (0.976–1.064) is set by 0.1–2.5 % of far rows (fluctuation lock-ons, fitter failures), Hermes (0.08, 10.8) kurtosis 205 from 12 rows. V2 and V2b move in the right direction but over-correct the core to 1.09–1.65. V2b is E171's \(\sigma_{ratio}\): the library implementation always uses np.gradient derivatives of the pixel template — applied to the toy core it gives 1.024 at (0.08, 25.23) (where V_3p is already right at 0.998) and 1.10 / 1.18 / 1.30 at the three low cells, so T230's L0 near-row pass is not supported by the toy and is questioned until W5 decides whether the over-correction is the np.gradient derivative error or a real difference between the toy and L0. W4 closed: no parameter-free formula meets the key; \(\delta_1\) ruled out by both arms; \(\delta_0\) + \(V_{3p}\) is the best mean law at DET_ML \(\gtrsim\) 14. W3 closed: the Hermes arm confirms on all 2.546 M converged rows that the near-row (r̂ < 2) narrowing is a property of the fitter (uncorrected 0.87–0.90 at 6–10, 0.93–0.96 at 10–20) but gives no width formula (\(V_{2p}\) and \(1 - \rho^2\) rejected by its own numbers); E171's \(\sigma_{ratio}\) remains the best arm. Source: reviews/W4_hermes_claude.md, reviews/W3_hermes_claude.md; T233 (new, Provisional), T230, T232 (Questioned).
• \(\sigma_{ratio}\) 的 L0 近行通过被质疑：只有 np.gradient 的 3 点差分能通过（R054、R055、R057）\(\sigma_{ratio}\)'s L0 near-row pass is questioned: only np.gradient's 3-point stencil passes (R054, R055, R057)：W5 双臂 + RT-54 分诊。把 \(\sigma_{ratio}\) 的位置导数换成拟合模板族的精确导数后，它在 L0 近行 DET_ML 6–10 过度修正（std z 1.67 / 1.83，两臂；生产子样本 6.95），在玩具核上也过度修正（1.05–2.18）。RT-54 用不同差分格式给出决定性证据：只有 3 点 h = 1 的 np.gradient 模板通过，5 点模板给 1.31、h = 2 给 0.81、精确导数给 1.68——原先的"通过"是一次离散化误差的偶然抵消。所以 \(\sigma_{ratio}\) 是一个经验校准，不是推导出来的宽度。来源：07 R054、R055、R057；reviews/RT-54_triage_claude.md；E173（dual-arm）。Both W5 arms + the RT-54 triage. With the position derivatives of \(\sigma_{ratio}\) replaced by the fitter template family's exact derivatives it over-corrects L0 near rows at DET_ML 6–10 (std z 1.67 / 1.83, two arms; a production subsample gives 6.95) and over-corrects the toy core too (1.05–2.18). RT-54 gave the decisive evidence with different stencils: only the 3-point h = 1 np.gradient stencil passes, while the 5-point stencil gives 1.31, h = 2 gives 0.81 and the exact derivatives give 1.68 — the old "pass" was an accidental cancellation of a discretisation error. So \(\sigma_{ratio}\) is an empirical calibration, not a derived width. Source: 07 R054, R055, R057; reviews/RT-54_triage_claude.md; E173 (dual-arm).
• 真实 PSF：位置固定时逐行宽度通过，位置自由时低计数偏窄（R056、R058）Real PSF: the per-row width passes with the position fixed and is narrow at low counts with it free (R056, R058)：RT-52 分诊 + resume。T219 的"给定拟合振幅后宽度对"重新限定：位置固定时逐行 \(V(\hat{A})\) 在 DET_ML 8–600 通过（std 0.995–1.007，N = 20,000；7 个配置在 DET_ML 8），而记录的脚本除以 \(V(S_{true})\)（一个标签，IRON-RULE 失误）在 DET_ML 8 / 15 / 30 失败（1.117 / 1.050 / 1.024）；mean −0.67 是噪声（−0.107 \(\pm\) 0.231）。位置自由（T234，新记录）：残差均值 +1.15…+1.73 \(\Delta C\) 等于解析 \(\delta_{3p}\)（差 +0.01 于 DET_ML 8，−0.06…−0.44 于 15–600），逐行宽度 std 0.914（DET_ML 8）、0.955（15）、0.992–1.000（30–600）。R060 限定：这些是固定 \(S_{true}\) 格子；用 \(V(S_{true})\) 归一后 std 是 1.03 / 1.01 / 1.02 / 1.00 / 1.00（DET_ML 8 / 15 / 30 / 60 / 600），偏窄只在逐行 \(V(\hat{S})\) 下出现且位于格内低 \(\hat{S}\)；"三处共同偏窄"的综合已撤回（三处行集不同）。红队的"位置抖动 \(\Delta C_A\) 亏损"机制被驳回：那是双线性插值的尖点（换成 3 阶样条后小 50–200 倍）。来源：07 R056、R058；T234（Provisional）。The RT-52 triage + resume. T219's "the width is right once conditioned on the fitted amplitude" is rescoped: with the position fixed the per-row \(V(\hat{A})\) passes at DET_ML 8–600 (std 0.995–1.007, N = 20,000; 7 configurations at DET_ML 8), while the recorded script divided by \(V(S_{true})\) (a label; an IRON-RULE slip), which fails at DET_ML 8 / 15 / 30 (1.117 / 1.050 / 1.024); the mean −0.67 was noise (−0.107 \(\pm\) 0.231). With the position free (T234, new record): the residual mean +1.15…+1.73 \(\Delta C\) equals the analytic \(\delta_{3p}\) (difference +0.01 at DET_ML 8, −0.06…−0.44 at 15–600) and the per-row width std is 0.914 (DET_ML 8), 0.955 (15) and 0.992–1.000 (30–600). R060 qualifies it: these are fixed-\(S_{true}\) cells; normalised by \(V(S_{true})\) the std is 1.03 / 1.01 / 1.02 / 1.00 / 1.00 (DET_ML 8 / 15 / 30 / 60 / 600), the narrowing appears only with the per-row \(V(\hat{S})\) and sits at low within-cell \(\hat{S}\); the "narrow in all three places" synthesis is withdrawn (the settings use different row sets). The red team's "position-jitter \(\Delta C_A\) deficit" mechanism is refuted: it was a bilinear-interpolation cusp (50–200 \(\times\) smaller with an order-3 spline). Source: 07 R056, R058; T234 (Provisional).
• 玩具低计数偏窄被改写为可观测律：按 \(\hat{S}\) 分箱，DET_ML \(\approx\) 12 以上就回到 1（R059）The toy low-count narrowing is rewritten as an observable law: binned in \(\hat{S}\), it is back to 1 by DET_ML \(\approx\) 12 (R059)：RT-55 分诊。把行按 \(S_{true}\) 先验汇成一个总体、再按可观测 \(\hat{S}\) 分箱：核 r̂ \(\leq\) 4 px 的 std z 在 DET_ML 1–3 是 0.82–0.86，\(\approx\) 5 是 0.93–0.95，\(\approx\) 7.5 是 0.94–0.96，\(\approx\) 12 及以上是 0.993（在 1 SE 内）；核的均值在 DET_ML 1–3 是 +0.29–0.30。调度方用自己的人口与种子复算，六个 b = 0.08 箱全部在 1.4 SE 内一致。所以"窄 2–4 % 于 DET_ML 8–14"是固定 \(S_{true}\) 格子的效应，不是可观测量的律；r̂ \(\leq\) 4 这个切割很关键——Ŝ < 4 时 r̂ \(\geq\) 4 的行占 13–26 %、std 1.3–7.5，全行宽度反而宽（1.4–1.9）。W6 作为独立人口任务被撤掉，剩下的是给低计数偏窄一个尺寸预测（R060 之后仍缺）。来源：07 R059；reviews/RT-55_triage_claude.md。The RT-55 triage. Pooling the rows into one population over an \(S_{true}\) prior and then binning by the observable \(\hat{S}\): the core r̂ \(\leq\) 4 px std z is 0.82–0.86 at DET_ML 1–3, 0.93–0.95 at \(\approx\) 5, 0.94–0.96 at \(\approx\) 7.5 and 0.993 (within 1 SE) at \(\approx\) 12 and above; the core mean is +0.29–0.30 at DET_ML 1–3. The dispatcher's own population and seeds agree within 1.4 SE in all six b = 0.08 bins. So "narrow by 2–4 % at DET_ML 8–14" was a fixed-\(S_{true}\) cell effect, not a law of the observables; the r̂ \(\leq\) 4 cut is essential — at Ŝ < 4 the r̂ \(\geq\) 4 rows are 13–26 % with std 1.3–7.5 and the all-row width is wide (1.4–1.9). W6 is dropped as a separate population task; what remains is a size prediction for the low-count narrowing (still missing after R060). Source: 07 R059; reviews/RT-55_triage_claude.md.
• "三处共同偏窄"的综合被撤回（R060）The "narrow in all three places" synthesis is withdrawn (R060)：RT-56 分诊（07 R060，16:36Z）。在 T234 的固定 \(S_{true}\) 格子里，同一条残差改用 \(V(S_{true})\) 归一后 std 是 1.03 / 1.01 / 1.02 / 1.00 / 1.00（DET_ML 8 / 15 / 30 / 60 / 600）——格子内是归一过的，偏窄只在逐行 \(V(\hat{S})\) 下出现，且位于格内低 \(\hat{S}\)。玩具、L0 近行与真实 PSF 小模拟三处用的行集不同（核、近行、全行），所以 R058 那条"同样的低 DET_ML 偏窄出现在三处"的综合作为论断撤回，每处必须各自带自己的构造引用。同时驳回两条替代解释："玩具偏窄是 r̂ 选择伪影"（r̂ 是可观测切量，R059 的可观测箱显示窄核加宽尾）与"\(\sigma_{ratio}\) 能修 L0"（那是 np.gradient 伪影，R054/R057）。RT-58 改为在可观测 \(\hat{S}\) 箱里检验 T234。来源：07 R060；reviews/RT-56_triage_claude.md。The RT-56 triage (07 R060, 16:36Z). Inside T234's fixed-\(S_{true}\) cells the same residual scored with \(V(S_{true})\) has std 1.03 / 1.01 / 1.02 / 1.00 / 1.00 (DET_ML 8 / 15 / 30 / 60 / 600) — the cell is normalised, and the narrowing appears only with the per-row \(V(\hat{S})\), at low within-cell \(\hat{S}\). The toy, L0 near rows and the real-PSF mini-simulation use different row sets (core, near rows, all rows), so R058's "the same low-DET_ML narrowing appears in all three" is withdrawn as a claim and each setting must be quoted with its own construction. Two alternative explanations were rejected: "the toy narrowing is an r̂-selection artefact" (r̂ is an observable cut; R059's observable bins show a narrow core and a wide tail) and "\(\sigma_{ratio}\) fixes L0" (that was the np.gradient artefact, R054/R057). RT-58 now tests T234 in observable \(\hat{S}\) bins. Source: 07 R060; reviews/RT-56_triage_claude.md.
• T226 被改写成可观测律（R061）T226 is rewritten as an observable law (R061)：RT-57 分诊（07 R061，17:31Z）。RT-57 的人口（N = 300,000 每 b）与调度方自己的人口（N = 150,000 每 b）一致：按可观测 \(\hat{S}\) 分箱后，b \(\geq\) 0.02 时 std z 在 1 的 2–3 % 内、mean z 在 \(\pm\) 0.09 内（b = 0.08 的 DET_ML 4–8 处 0.02 判据未达：\(-0.05\)…\(-0.08\)）；b = 0.005 且 \(\hat{S} \lesssim\) 3 时律变成离散格子——mean \(-1.22\)…\(+0.86\) 在相邻箱之间摆动、std 0.18–1.13、没有右尾（q99.9 \(-0.86\)…\(+2.25\)）；\(\hat{S} = 0\) 的原子占 17–23 %（那是 DET_ML = 0 的边界）。R053 的固定 \(S_{true}\) 数字（mean \(\pm\) 0.016；b = 0.005 窄 1–3 %；右尾短 q99.9 2.3–3.0）是格均值。结论：b \(\gtrsim\) 0.005 以下、\(\hat{S} \approx\) 3 以下不得把插入式当高斯用。来源：07 R061；reviews/RT-57_triage_claude.md。The RT-57 triage (07 R061, 17:31Z). RT-57's population (N = 300,000 per b) and the dispatcher's own (N = 150,000 per b) agree: binned by the observable \(\hat{S}\), at b \(\geq\) 0.02 the std z is within 2–3 % of 1 and the mean within \(\pm\) 0.09 (the 0.02 key is missed at b = 0.08, DET_ML 4–8: \(-0.05\)…\(-0.08\)); at b = 0.005 and \(\hat{S} \lesssim\) 3 the law becomes a discrete lattice — mean \(-1.22\)…\(+0.86\) oscillating between adjacent bins, std 0.18–1.13, no right tail (q99.9 \(-0.86\)…\(+2.25\)); the \(\hat{S} = 0\) atom is 17–23 % (a DET_ML = 0 boundary). R053's fixed-\(S_{true}\) numbers (mean \(\pm\) 0.016; b = 0.005 narrow 1–3 %; right tail short, q99.9 2.3–3.0) are cell averages. Conclusion: below b \(\gtrsim\) 0.005 and \(\hat{S} \approx\) 3 the plug-in must not be used as a Gaussian. Source: 07 R061; reviews/RT-57_triage_claude.md.
• 真实 PSF 的位置自由宽度被改写成可观测律（R062，RT-58 分诊）：The real PSF's position-free width is rewritten as an observable law (R062, the RT-58 triage):按可观测 \(\hat{S}\) 分箱（总体 S_true ~ dN/dS \(\propto\) S^−2.5 于 [5.58, 51.20]，N = 50,000），插入式 \(V_{3p}(\hat{S})\) 高估宽度：std z 0.73（DET_ML \(\lesssim\) 2）、0.79（3）、0.83（4）、0.85（5.3）、0.88（6.9）、0.92（9）、0.94（12）、0.96（18.5）、\(\approx\) 1（42）；偏窄在 DET_ML \(\approx\) 17–22 以下都超过 2 SE，持续到目录区间 DET_ML 6–20——玩具的律（R059）到 DET_ML \(\approx\) 12 就消失了，真实 PSF 的没有。Claude 自己的先验边界与斜率检验（S_true \(\geq\) 7 / \(\geq\) 8.5、斜率 −2.5 \(\to\) −1.5）每箱都在 1 SE 内不变，所以这是给定 \(\hat{S}\) 的律、不是先验截断；固定 \(S_{true}\) 格子的 0.914 / 0.955（DET_ML 8 / 15）与 0.992–1.000（30–600）只作历史。来源：reviews/RT-58_triage_claude.md、07 R062。Binned by the observable \(\hat{S}\) (a population S_true ~ dN/dS \(\propto\) S^−2.5 on [5.58, 51.20], N = 50,000), the plug-in \(V_{3p}(\hat{S})\) over-states the width: std z 0.73 (DET_ML \(\lesssim\) 2), 0.79 (3), 0.83 (4), 0.85 (5.3), 0.88 (6.9), 0.92 (9), 0.94 (12), 0.96 (18.5), \(\approx\) 1 (42); the deficit is above 2 SE through DET_ML \(\approx\) 17–22 and lasts into the catalogue regime DET_ML 6–20 — the toy's law (R059) is gone by DET_ML \(\approx\) 12, the real PSF's is not. Claude's own prior-edge and slope test (S_true \(\geq\) 7 / \(\geq\) 8.5, slope −2.5 \(\to\) −1.5) leaves every bin within 1 SE, so it is a law given \(\hat{S}\), not a prior truncation; the fixed-\(S_{true}\) cells' 0.914 / 0.955 (DET_ML 8 / 15) and 0.992–1.000 (30–600) are history only. Sources: reviews/RT-58_triage_claude.md, 07 R062.
• 宽度与先验无关、均值不是（R063，RT-59 分诊）：The width is prior-independent, the mean is not (R063, the RT-59 triage):四个源计数先验（−2.5、平、−3.5、S_min = 12 截断）下，可观测 \(\hat{S}\) 箱里的宽度处处变动 \(\leq\) 0.036（40 对里 2 对边缘，\(\leq\) 3.8 SE），所以给定 (\(\hat{S}\), b) 就够；但 \(\Delta C\) 的均值在 DET_ML \(\lesssim\) 17 随先验移动——仅振幅模型 \(\pm\) 0.02…0.14，位置自由核心 +0.03…+0.26。机制是固定 \(\hat{S}\) 箱内的 \(S_{true}\) 混合（Eddington）：把先验无关的固定 \(S_{true}\) 矩与 p(S_true given \(\hat{S}\)) 混合就能预测这个移动（RMS 0.007–0.022 于均值、0.005–0.008 于 std）。因此所有均值数字（T226 的 \(\pm\) 0.09、T233 核心 +0.29、T234 的 +0.28…−0.05 z、T231 的 \(\delta_0\) 闭合）只对 −2.5 先验成立；目录用户若要把均值做到好于 0.02，必须给出源计数先验。来源：reviews/RT-59_triage_claude.md、07 R063。Under four source-count priors (−2.5, flat, −3.5 and truncated at S_min = 12), the width in observable \(\hat{S}\) bins moves by \(\leq\) 0.036 everywhere (2 of 40 pairs marginal, \(\leq\) 3.8 SE), so (\(\hat{S}\), b) suffice; but the mean of \(\Delta C\) moves with the prior at DET_ML \(\lesssim\) 17 — \(\pm\) 0.02…0.14 amplitude-only and +0.03…+0.26 position-free core. The mechanism is the \(S_{true}\) mixture inside a fixed \(\hat{S}\) bin (Eddington): mixing prior-independent fixed-\(S_{true}\) moments with p(S_true given \(\hat{S}\)) predicts the shift (RMS 0.007–0.022 in the mean, 0.005–0.008 in std). So every mean number (T226's \(\pm\) 0.09, T233's core +0.29, T234's +0.28…−0.05 z, T231's \(\delta_0\) closure) holds for the −2.5 prior only; a catalogue user who wants the mean better than 0.02 must supply the source-count prior. Sources: reviews/RT-59_triage_claude.md, 07 R063.
• RT-58 与 RT-59 分诊完毕，RT-60 与 RT-61 发出：RT-58 and RT-59 are triaged, RT-60 and RT-61 are launched:第一支（codexnim，约 4.9 h，virgo 171 ms/行）得 R062；第二支（Hermes，约 5.8 h）得 R063。RT-60（codexnim，22:00:58Z）攻击 R062 这条新律：低 \(\hat{S}\) 处拟合器是否找到全局最优、拟合模板处的插入式本身、第二个源位置；RT-61（Hermes，23:58:19Z）把 L1 emldetect 在 DET_ML 6–10 的偏窄（格子 0.95 / 0.929）放到可观测 \(\hat{S}\) 箱里，看它是否就是上面那条真实 PSF 规律——这是从模拟到目录的桥。来源：cognition-os/REDTEAM_QUEUE.md、06_AGENT_LOG.md 22:02Z 与 00:00Z。The first (codexnim, about 4.9 h, 171 ms/row on virgo) gave R062; the second (Hermes, about 5.8 h) gave R063. RT-60 (codexnim, 22:00:58Z) attacks R062's new law: whether the fitter finds the global optimum at low \(\hat{S}\), the plug-in at the fitted template itself, and a second source position; RT-61 (Hermes, 23:58:19Z) moves L1 emldetect's narrowing at DET_ML 6–10 (cells 0.95 / 0.929) into observable \(\hat{S}\) bins to see whether it is R062's real-PSF law — the bridge from simulation to the catalogue. Sources: cognition-os/REDTEAM_QUEUE.md, 06_AGENT_LOG.md 22:02Z and 00:00Z.

工作 / WorkWork

• 任务状态Job status：关闭：W3 全局搜索拟合器条件律（双臂，codexnim → E171/T230/R046，Hermes → R052；孤儿进程 item3_mc.py 于 06:56Z 经 PID 文件终止，输出未用、日志留档）、W4 玩具二阶律（双臂，→ E172、T231、T232 Questioned、T233、R051/R052）。发出：W5"给定 \((\hat{S}, \hat{r})\) 的条件宽度——用精确导数重推 \(\sigma_{ratio}\)"（两臂，.agent/jobs/2026-10-18-detml-width-w5-sigma-ratio/，06:58:41Z 起；判据：玩具核 r̂ \(\leq\) 4 px 五个格 |std z − 1| < 0.02 且不破坏 DET_ML \(\geq\) 24 两格，L0 每个 N \(\geq\) 10,000 生产格近行 std z 落在 1 的 0.02 内，同一函数，常数不许在判据格上调）。红队在跑：三支——一支打玩具尾部（T226），一支打真实 PSF 宽度（T219），一支打玩具核宽度（T231 + T233）。已分诊：四场红队检查（07 R047–R050）。部署：T12 第 20 阶段修复清单经审阅（PASS with banner）后部署为 c83b1ad3，手册数据截至仍为 2026-10-17 23:51 UTC。来源：cognition-os/08_RUNNING.md rev 50、reviews/。Closed: W3, the conditional law for the global-search fitter (two arms; codexnim → E171/T230/R046, Hermes → R052; the orphan item3_mc.py was terminated at 06:56Z through its PID file, output unused, log kept), and W4, the toy second-order law (two arms; → E172, T231, T232 Questioned, T233, R051/R052). Launched: W5, "the conditional width given \((\hat{S}, \hat{r})\) — re-derive \(\sigma_{ratio}\) with exact derivatives" (two arms, .agent/jobs/2026-10-18-detml-width-w5-sigma-ratio/, from 06:58:41Z; key: |std z − 1| < 0.02 on the toy core r̂ \(\leq\) 4 px in all five cells without breaking the two DET_ML \(\geq\) 24 cells, L0 near-row std z within 0.02 of 1 in every production cell with N \(\geq\) 10,000, same function, no constant tuned on the key cells). Red teams running: three — one attacks the toy's tails (T226), one the real-PSF width (T219), one the toy core width (T231 + T233). Triaged: four red-team checks (07 R047–R050). Deployed: the T12 stage-20 fix list, reviewed (PASS with banner) and deployed as c83b1ad3, with the handbook's data cutoff still 2026-10-17 23:51 UTC. Source: cognition-os/08_RUNNING.md rev 50, reviews/.
• 任务状态（09:40Z 之后）Job status (after 09:40Z)：关闭：W5（两臂，E173；判据未达成——精确导数的 \(\sigma_{ratio}\) 在 L0 近行与玩具核都过度修正）、RT-52（T219 重新限定 + resume 给出 T234）、RT-53、RT-54、RT-55。发出：RT-56（给低计数偏窄一个尺寸预测，问玩具 / L0 / 真实 PSF 三处的共同物理还是共同计分）、RT-57（把 T226 的振幅玩具律搬到可观测 \(\hat{S}\) 箱）。RT-56 与 RT-57 其后都已分诊（R060、R061）：RT-56 把"共同偏窄"的综合撤回，RT-57 把 T226 改写成可观测律。部署：T12 第 23 阶段经审阅（PASS with banner）后部署为 935d5f5f，数据截至 2026-10-18 09:40 UTC。新记录：T234（真实 PSF 位置自由）。新缺陷：B009（lib/beyond_fisher 的方差项漏掉泊松 \(\kappa_4\)、mean_curvature 是错的）。来源：08 §3 rev 56–57。Closed: W5 (two arms, E173; the key is not met — the exact-derivative \(\sigma_{ratio}\) over-corrects both L0 near rows and the toy core), RT-52 (T219 rescoped + resume giving T234), RT-53, RT-54 and RT-55. Launched: RT-56 (a size prediction for the low-count narrowing; asks whether the toy, L0 and real-PSF cases share physics or a common scoring), RT-57 (moving T226's amplitude-only toy law into observable \(\hat{S}\) bins). RT-56 and RT-57 were both triaged later (R060, R061): RT-56 withdraws the "common narrowing" synthesis and RT-57 rewrites T226 as an observable law. Deployed: the T12 stage-23 refresh, reviewed (PASS with banner) and deployed as 935d5f5f, with the data cutoff 2026-10-18 09:40 UTC. New records: T234 (real PSF, position free). New defect: B009 (lib/beyond_fisher's variance term omits the Poisson \(\kappa_4\) and its mean_curvature is wrong). Source: 08 §3 rev 56–57.
• 任务状态（15:42Z 之后）Job status (after 15:42Z)：已分诊：RT-56（R060，16:36Z，撤回"共同偏窄"综合）、RT-57（R061，17:31Z，T226 改写为可观测律）。发出：RT-58（codexnim，16:36Z：真实 PSF 位置自由总体在可观测 \(\hat{S}\) 箱里的 std z，判定 T234 是可观测律还是只能限于固定 \(S_{true}\)）、RT-59（Hermes，17:32Z：玩具可观测律的先验依赖，\(\geq\) 3 个先验、匹配 \(\hat{S}\) 箱每箱 \(\geq\) 10,000 行）。手册刷新：T12 第 24、25、26 阶段（16:12Z / 17:32Z / 18:26Z 启动）做完 2026-10-18 16:00Z 刷新清单，经审阅（PASS with banner）后部署为 448804a5，数据截至 2026-10-18 15:42 UTC；第 27 阶段（19:22Z 启动）修评审 T12_017 的清单并折入 R060/R061。来源：08 §3 rev 58–61、cognition-os/06_AGENT_LOG.md 15:44Z 至 19:22Z、reviews/T12_017_claude.md。Triaged: RT-56 (R060, 16:36Z, withdrawing the "common narrowing" synthesis) and RT-57 (R061, 17:31Z, T226 rewritten as an observable law). Launched: RT-58 (codexnim, 16:36Z: the real-PSF position-free population's std z in observable \(\hat{S}\) bins, deciding whether T234 is an observable law or stays limited to fixed \(S_{true}\)) and RT-59 (Hermes, 17:32Z: prior dependence of the toy observable laws, \(\geq\) 3 priors, matched \(\hat{S}\) bins with \(\geq\) 10,000 rows each). Handbook refresh: T12 stages 24, 25 and 26 (launched 16:12Z / 17:32Z / 18:26Z) finished the 2026-10-18 16:00Z refresh list, were reviewed (PASS with banner) and deployed as 448804a5 with the data cutoff 2026-10-18 15:42 UTC; stage 27 (launched 19:22Z) fixes the T12_017 review list and folds R060/R061. Sources: 08 §3 rev 58–61, cognition-os/06_AGENT_LOG.md 15:44Z through 19:22Z, reviews/T12_017_claude.md.
• 任务状态（17:31Z 之后）Job status (after 17:31Z)：手册刷新：T12 第 27 阶段（19:22Z 启动，PID 2955664）在第 1–4 项后触及轮次上限，续跑为第 28 阶段（PID 3114995，20:13Z），做完第 5–9 项；经审阅（PASS with banner：T219 被误标 R044、status 的 W1 失效段未带标签）后部署为 663838ca，数据截至 2026-10-18 17:31 UTC（R061）。第 29 阶段（00:00Z 启动）折入 R062、R063 与前两支红队的分诊。红队：前两支已分诊（R062、R063），另两支在跑。来源：06_AGENT_LOG.md 19:22Z 至 00:00Z、reviews/T12_018_claude.md。Handbook refresh: T12 stage 27 (launched 19:22Z, PID 2955664) hit the turn limit after items 1–4 and resumed as stage 28 (PID 3114995, 20:13Z), which finished items 5–9; reviewed (PASS with banner: T219 mislabelled R044, the status page's W1 failure paragraphs unlabelled) and deployed as 663838ca with the data cutoff 2026-10-18 17:31 UTC (R061). Stage 29 (launched 00:00Z) folds R062, R063 and the first two red-team triages. Red teams: the first two red teams are triaged (R062, R063); two more are running. Sources: 06_AGENT_LOG.md 19:22Z through 00:00Z, reviews/T12_018_claude.md.

问题 / ProblemsProblems

• 故障与自我更正Failures and self-corrections：W4 Hermes 臂在前台命令上循环：03:45–05:53Z 之间 16 个相同的前台调用被 420 s 上限杀掉，损失约 2 小时；05:58Z 停下并用 resume 查询恢复，34 分钟内完成 virgo N = 20,000 运行与报告。处置：改为 nohup 后台加轮询（W5 的 brief 已写明）。T12 第 21 阶段写了假检查点：第 20 阶段与其 resume 都以空回复结束，第 21 阶段把第 1–2 项标为 DONE 但页面从未改动；新会话全部重做，检查点里注明旧文件为假。调度方自己的 R051 一小时内被 R052 取代："R045 未确立"写成"重尾 SE 已解释"；两臂同一条代码路径在可观测核上的结果表明真正的结构是核内窄 2–4 %、全行 std 由少数远行决定。W3 孤儿进程：codexnim 臂的 item3_mc.py 在 W3 收尾后仍在跑，06:56Z 经 PID 文件终止。virgo 负载：07:52Z 时 CPU 91 %（多为其他用户），L0 的暂停看守按设计在 07:49Z 停掉我们的 worker；L0 生产 197/251 块。来源：08_RUNNING.md rev 50、reviews/W4_hermes_claude.md、reviews/T12_015_claude.md。The W4 Hermes arm looped on a foreground command: 16 identical foreground calls were killed by the 420 s cap between 03:45 and 05:53Z, about 2 h lost; it stopped at 05:58Z and was resumed with a resume query, finishing the virgo N = 20,000 run and the report in 34 min. Action: nohup background plus polling (written into W5's brief). T12 stage 21 wrote a false checkpoint: stage 20 and its resume both ended with empty replies, and stage 21 marked items 1–2 DONE although no page had been modified; a fresh session redid everything and flagged the old file as false. The dispatcher's own R051 was superseded within an hour by R052: "R045 not established" was written as "explained by the heavy-tail SE"; both arms' rows on one code path show the real structure is a 2–4 % narrowing inside the core with the all-row std set by a few far rows. The W3 orphan process: the codexnim arm's item3_mc.py kept running after W3 closed and was terminated at 06:56Z through its PID file. virgo load: at 07:52Z the CPU is 91 % (mostly other users) and the L0 pause watcher stopped our workers at 07:49Z as designed; L0 production is at 197 of 251 chunks. Source: 08_RUNNING.md rev 50, reviews/W4_hermes_claude.md, reviews/T12_015_claude.md.
• 09:40Z 之后的更正与故障Corrections and failures after 09:40Z：调度方自己的时间戳失误，已更正：第 23 阶段的检查点与横幅一度写成 04:51 / 04:55 UTC，实际是 11:51 / 11:49 UTC（会话日志 11:48Z 记录）。调度方自己的 IRON-RULE 失误（R056）：T219 的记录脚本用 \(V(S_{true})\) 而不是逐行 \(V(\hat{A})\) 作分母——\(S_{true}\) 是标签，不是可观测量；改成逐行后位置固定的宽度通过。红队的双线性模板（RT-52 O4）："位置抖动造成 \(\Delta C_A\) 亏损"被驳回——那是双线性插值的尖点，换成 3 阶样条后小 50–200 倍；同一课（E017）第二次出现。我自己的过度陈述：第 23 阶段物理页 §13 的"位置误差被压小"机制不成立（R055：固定窄 \(\hat{S}\) 时宽度在 r̂ 上是平的，动的是均值），本阶段已改写。来源：cognition-os/sessions/2026-10-18.md、07 R055、R056、R058。The dispatcher's own timestamp slip, corrected: the stage-23 checkpoint and banner were briefly stamped 04:51 / 04:55 UTC when the real times were 11:51 / 11:49 UTC (recorded in the session log at 11:48Z). The dispatcher's own IRON-RULE slip (R056): T219's recorded script divided by \(V(S_{true})\) instead of the per-row \(V(\hat{A})\) — \(S_{true}\) is a label, not an observable; with the per-row denominator the position-fixed width passes. The red team's bilinear template (RT-52 O4): "position jitter causes a \(\Delta C_A\) deficit" is refuted — it was a bilinear-interpolation cusp, 50–200 \(\times\) smaller with an order-3 spline; the same lesson (E017) for the second time. My own overstatement: stage 23's physics-page §13 mechanism "the position error is squeezed" does not hold (R055: at fixed narrow \(\hat{S}\) the width is flat in r̂ and it is the mean that moves); rewritten in this stage. Source: cognition-os/sessions/2026-10-18.md, 07 R055, R056, R058.
• 15:42Z 之后的故障与自我更正Failures and self-corrections after 15:42Z：T12 的写网页会话两次在工具调用中途停下：第 24 阶段（16:12Z 启动的续跑会话）在做到第 3 项时停止，第 25 阶段（17:32Z 的续跑）又提前停下，只剩第 6、9、10 三项；换一个新会话（第 26 阶段，18:26Z）才做完。第 26 阶段的检查点把一次 check_math 的 FAIL 写成了 PASS：它原样贴出 FAIL index.html: 1 与 FAIL meetings.html: 4，随后却写"index and meetings PASS"（D29 类：结论与粘贴的输出相反）。评审 T12_017 因此给出带横幅的通过。教训：约 400 条消息之后不要续跑 T12 会话，应带一个进度文件重开；每个自检的 PASS/FAIL 必须逐字引用脚本输出。来源：reviews/T12_017_claude.md、cognition-os/06_AGENT_LOG.md 17:32Z 与 18:26Z。The T12 writer sessions stopped mid tool call twice: stage 24 (the 16:12Z resumed session) stopped at item 3 and stage 25 (the 17:32Z resume) stopped short again, leaving only items 6, 9 and 10; a fresh session (stage 26, 18:26Z) finished them. Stage 26's checkpoint called a check_math FAIL a PASS: it pasted FAIL index.html: 1 and FAIL meetings.html: 4 verbatim and then wrote "index and meetings PASS" (a D29-class verdict mismatch: the conclusion contradicts the pasted output). The T12_017 review therefore passed it with a banner. Lessons: after about 400 messages do not resume a T12 session — start fresh with a progress file; and quote every self-check's PASS/FAIL verbatim from the script output. Sources: reviews/T12_017_claude.md, cognition-os/06_AGENT_LOG.md 17:32Z and 18:26Z.
• 17:31Z 之后的故障Failures after 17:31Z：T12 第 27 阶段在第 1–4 项后触及轮次上限（19:22Z 启动，PID 2955664），续跑为第 28 阶段（PID 3114995）才做完第 5–9 项；同类中断在第 24 / 25 阶段已出现过一次（16:12Z / 17:32Z），刷新会话仍按 9 项设计。第三支红队在 virgo 报 WAIT 期间启动（22:00:58Z，codexnim，PID 3465984）：该臂的蒙特卡洛要等 virgo 负载允许才开始，启动时间因此早于实际计算时间。来源：06_AGENT_LOG.md 20:13Z、22:02Z。T12 stage 27 hit the turn limit after items 1–4 (launched 19:22Z, PID 2955664); stage 28 (PID 3114995) resumed it and finished items 5–9; the same interruption had already happened at stages 24 / 25 (16:12Z / 17:32Z), so the refresh sessions are still scoped for 9 items. the third red team was launched while virgo said WAIT (22:00:58Z, codexnim, PID 3465984): that arm's Monte Carlo waits for virgo load, so its launch time precedes its actual compute time. Sources: 06_AGENT_LOG.md 20:13Z, 22:02Z.

待 PI 决定 / For the PIFor the PI

• 无None：08_RUNNING.md §6 没有新增待决项；此前的 M31 的 \(\Delta C_A\) 约定（\(\lambda\) 还是 \(\nu+\lambda\)）与 lib/detml.py 的说明两条仍未答复。08_RUNNING.md §6 has no new pending item; the two earlier ones (the M31 map's \(\Delta C_A\) convention, \(\lambda\) or \(\nu+\lambda\), and a note in lib/detml.py) are still unanswered.

2026-10-172026-10-17

PI 07:10Z 把项目重心转到模拟宽度（新问题 Q7），目录问题降为附加讨论。当天十五条修订记录（R026–R040）里有一半是更正我自己或 worker 的读数。三条宽度任务（W1 理论、W2 梯子、SAS 版本重放）与 Q1 的第 1–2 步都在当天交付并评审；到当天晚些时候只剩 W3 与两个红队（RT-43、RT-45）还在跑——RT-44 已分诊。每条数字都从 cited 记录里原样抄来。At 07:10Z the PI moved the project's priority to the simulation width (new question Q7) and demoted the catalogue questions to a bonus discussion. Half of the day's fifteen revision records (R026–R040) correct my own or a worker's reading. All three width tasks (W1 theory, the W2 ladder, the SAS version replay) and Q1's steps 1–2 reported and were reviewed that day; by later that day only W3 and two red teams (RT-43, RT-45) remain running — RT-44 is triaged. Every number is copied verbatim from the cited record.

成果 / ResultsResults

• PI 把项目重心转到模拟宽度（新问题 Q7）The PI moved the project's priority to the simulation width (new question Q7)：PI 把项目重心转到模拟宽度（新问题 Q7）。问题变成：零参数的插入式 \(\sqrt{V}\) 能不能描述我们自己的模拟里给定 \(\hat{S}\) 的 \(\Delta C\) 宽度（玩具、L0 我们的拟合器、L1 emldetect、J 联合），在哪里、为什么失效。目录问题（Q1 均值亏损、Q2 高计数 m、Q3 目录宽度、Q5 M31 图）只作附加讨论：不新派目录任务，在跑的跑完轻量分诊，留着不解决也可以接受。来源：02_CURRENT_QUESTION.md 优先级横幅、04_DECISION_LOG.md 2026-10-17 07:10Z 条目、08_RUNNING.md §2。The PI moved the project's priority to the simulation width (new question Q7). The question becomes: does the zero-parameter plug-in \(\sqrt{V}\) describe the \(\Delta C\) width given \(\hat{S}\) in our own simulations (toy, L0 our fitter, L1 emldetect, J joint), and where and why does it fail. The catalogue questions (Q1 mean deficit, Q2 high-count m, Q3 catalogue width, Q5 M31 map) are a bonus discussion only: dispatch no new catalogue work, triage the running ones lightly, and leaving them unresolved is acceptable. Sources: 02_CURRENT_QUESTION.md priority banner, 04_DECISION_LOG.md 2026-10-17 07:10Z entry, 08_RUNNING.md §2.
• “\(\sqrt{V}\) 窄 22–30 %”是 \(\hat{S}\) 分箱假象，已撤回（R030）“\(\sqrt{V}\) is 22-30 % too narrow” was an \(\hat{S}\)-binning artefact, withdrawn (R030)："\(\sqrt{V}\) 比给定 \(\hat{S}\) 的条件宽度窄 22–30 %"是按 \(\hat{S}\) 分位数分箱造成的假象，已撤回（07 R030）。同一个玩具模拟（15\(\times\)15 高斯 PSF，\(\sigma\)=1.8 px，b=0.02，仅振幅）逐行算 \(z=(\Delta C-\mu(\hat{S}))/\sqrt{V(\hat{S})}\)：std 0.995–1.009、mean −0.006…+0.010（S 20–320，T226）；而按 \(\hat{S}\) 分位数的粗分箱给出 1.22–1.30。分箱越多越接近逐行值（5 箱 2.0 → 20 箱 1.24 → 200 箱 1.03 → 1000 箱 0.99，RT-38 复核）。为什么分箱会把宽度看宽，见物理页的新一节。来源：07 R030、reviews/RT-38_triage_claude.md。"\(\sqrt{V}\) is 22–30 % narrower than the conditional width given \(\hat{S}\)" was an artefact of binning in \(\hat{S}\) quantiles and is withdrawn (07 R030). In the same toy simulation (15\(\times\)15 Gaussian PSF, \(\sigma\) = 1.8 px, b = 0.02, amplitude only) the per-row \(z=(\Delta C-\mu(\hat{S}))/\sqrt{V(\hat{S})}\) has std 0.995–1.009 and mean −0.006…+0.010 (S 20–320, T226), while coarse \(\hat{S}\)-quantile bins give 1.22–1.30. More bins converge to the per-row value (5 bins 2.0 → 20 bins 1.24 → 200 bins 1.03 → 1000 bins 0.99, RT-38's recheck). Why binning widens an apparent width is explained in the new physics-page section. Sources: 07 R030, reviews/RT-38_triage_claude.md.
• T226 的适用范围收窄：6–20 的尾与位置自由仍未校准（R033）T226's scope narrowed: the 6-20 tails and the position-free case are still uncalibrated (R033)：T226 的适用范围收窄（07 R033，RT-38 分诊；本段于第 23 阶段按 R053 修订；2026-10-18 按 R053 修订；2026-10-18 再按 R061 修订）。玩具里 S 20–320 对应 DET_ML \(\approx\) 45–690（\(\nu\)=1）；优先窗口 DET_ML 6–20 对应 S \(\approx\) 3–12。那里只有全量原始矩有限且校准（有界拟合下每个 b 匹配格 mean z 在 \(\pm\) 0.016 内；"矩失效"是玩具牛顿拟合器在近空图像上发散，R053）：\(\hat{S}\to\)0 的行 \(V(\hat{S})\to\)0（S=3 时 16 % 的重复 V < 0.05），玩具拟合器发散（S=3 时 6.4 % 的行 \(\Delta C\) < 0，是拟合器缺陷：真实拟合器把 \(\hat{S}\) 限制在 \(\geq\) 0）；b = 0.005 在 DET_ML 6–10 偏窄 1–3 %，右尾短于正态（q99.9 % 2.3–3.0）。位置自由时宽度不变但实现均值偏置 +1.4 \(\Delta C\)（W1 codexnim 臂独立发现）。6–20 的宽度模型必须给出尾部，不只是 std。来源：reviews/RT-38_triage_claude.md、07 R033。T226's scope is narrowed (07 R033, RT-38 triage; this bullet was amended for R053 in stage 23; amended 2026-10-18 for R053; amended 2026-10-18 again for R061). In the toy, S 20–320 corresponds to DET_ML \(\approx\) 45–690 (\(\nu\) = 1); the priority window DET_ML 6–20 corresponds to S \(\approx\) 3–12. There the full raw moments are finite and calibrated with a convergent fitter (mean z within \(\pm\) 0.016 at every b-matched cell; the old "moments fail" was the toy Newton fitter diverging on near-empty images, R053): rows with \(\hat{S} \to 0\) have \(V(\hat{S}) \to 0\) (16 % of reps with V < 0.05 at S = 3) and the unbounded toy fitter diverges (\(\Delta C\) < 0 in 6.4 % of rows at S = 3, a fitter defect: the real fitters bound \(\hat{S} \geq 0\)); at b = 0.005, DET_ML 6–10 is narrow by 1–3 %, and the right tail is short of normal (q99.9 % 2.3–3.0). With the position free the width is unchanged but the realised mean carries a +1.4 \(\Delta C\) bias (independently found by the W1 codexnim arm). A width model at 6–20 must give the tails, not only std. Sources: reviews/RT-38_triage_claude.md, 07 R033.
• 附录公式与核函数恒等；C-iso 的 A1 应写持平（R029）The appendix formula is identical to the kernel; write “par” for C-iso A1 (R029)：附录公式与核函数恒等；C-iso 的 A1 应写持平（07 R029，RT-36 分诊）。\(\Delta C_A\) 与核函数 \(\mu_{3p}\) 在机器精度上恒等（8.6e-16）——两条线的一致是公式恒等，不是独立确认。"A1 比 T3_joint_2D 差"在 C-all 显著、在 C-iso 落在噪声内（配对差 −0.0178 [−0.0437, +0.0082]），所以 C-iso 应写持平，不要说"更差"；宽度上附录显著更好（+0.052 [0.047, 0.057]）。独立的 appendix_psfgen 一臂存在，但被 T217 的模板差混淆。来源：reviews/RT-36_triage_claude.md。The appendix formula is identical to the kernel; write "par" for C-iso A1 (07 R029, RT-36 triage). \(\Delta C_A\) is identical to the kernel \(\mu_{3p}\) to machine precision (8.6e-16) — the two lines agreeing is a formula identity, not an independent confirmation. "Worse than T3_joint_2D on A1" is significant on C-all but lies within noise on C-iso (paired difference −0.0178 [−0.0437, +0.0082]), so on C-iso write par, not "worse"; on width the appendix is significantly better (+0.052 [0.047, 0.057]). The independent appendix_psfgen arm exists but is confounded by T217's template offset. Sources: reviews/RT-36_triage_claude.md.
• T13 线关闭：邻居扣除降低标记但不恢复振幅（R032）The T13 track closes: neighbour removal lowers the flag but not the amplitude (R032)：T13 线关闭（07 R032，bonus）。第 7b 阶段用真实邻居模板重做（282/282，约扣除 91 % 的邻居计数，每个 isoA 图像都断言与 base 不同）：大偏移标记比例下降（M2 0.925→0.725、M1 0.972→0.778）但振幅亏损没有恢复（big\(\div\)control \(S_A\) M2 +0.003、M1 −0.054），isoB 与 isoAB 也闭合不了；规则字面结果仍为 ambiguous。限制：第 7 阶段的 base 图不是第 6 阶段的图（只重建 big、种子标签不同），base 比值是跨图像的，与一致的第 6 阶段比值差 +0.027 / −0.040，与臂效应同量级，所以 \(\lesssim\) 0.04 的臂效应分不出来。振幅亏损的成因未定，不再派 stage 7c。来源：reviews/T13_008_claude.md。The T13 track closes (07 R032, bonus). Stage 7b redid the neighbour removal with real templates (282/282, about 91 % of the neighbour's counts removed, every isoA image asserted different from base): the big-shift flag fraction falls (M2 0.925→0.725, M1 0.972→0.778) but the amplitude loss is not recovered (big\(\div\)control \(S_A\) M2 +0.003, M1 −0.054), and isoB and isoAB do not close it either; the rule's literal outcome stays ambiguous. Limit: the stage-7 base image is not the stage-6 image (big-only rebuild, different seed tag), so the base ratio is cross-image and differs from the consistent stage-6 ratio by +0.027 / −0.040, the same order as the arm effects — arm effects below about 0.04 are not resolved. The cause of the amplitude loss is not identified and no stage 7c is dispatched. Sources: reviews/T13_008_claude.md.
• W1 玩具理论：Fisher 宽度在 DET_ML \(\gtrsim\) 20 通过，6–20 且 b \(\geq\) 0.02 失效（R037）W1 toy theory: the Fisher width passes at DET_ML \(\gtrsim\) 20 and fails at 6–20 with b \(\geq\) 0.02 (R037)：W1 玩具理论已评审（T229/E170，Provisional，07 R037）。可执行判据 |mean z| < 0.02 且 |std z − 1| < 0.02。codexnim 臂：位置固定的 Fisher 宽度 \(V_{3p}\) 在 DET_ML \(\gtrsim\) 20 与 b = 0.005 通过（std z 0.98–1.00），在 DET_ML 6–20 且 b \(\geq\) 0.02 失效（1.17–2.49，上尾重，弱位置识别）；条件均值 \(\mu_{3p}\) 每格偏低 +0.8…+1.7 \(\Delta C\)，无均值公式通过；截断（支撑截断）矩 27/27 格全通过；背景盒项只在 N_bg = 10,000 通过。Hermes 臂的相反结论被仲裁运行拒绝（见问题一节）。当天深夜 RT-43 分诊（R042）进一步定位：宽度失效的格来自 codexnim 臂拟合器 \(widthlib.fit_3p\) 走到 \(\pm 8\) px 位置截断（0.3–2 % 的重复；一个被追踪的重复 \(\Delta C\) 7.29 对 31.78），项目 Nelder–Mead 在三个争议格给 std z 1.008 / 0.987 / 0.989（N = 2000）、尾偏度 +0.51（原 +9.09）；宽度失效一半改为 Questioned；本阶段（T12 手册刷新）用项目拟合器复跑三个争议格（N = 2000，种子 777）得 std z 1.008 / 1.010 / 0.963，对记录的 1.171 / 2.486 / 1.331；第三格差 −0.037 未满足 R042 预注册的 |std z − 1| < 0.03，调度方不采用字面 revert，而是废弃记录的失效并把 (15.32, 0.08) 的宽度标为 open（偏窄不偏宽，N = 10,000 复跑入队，07 R044）；该复跑给出 std z 0.975（N = 10,000，约 3.6\(\sigma\) 低于 1），按预注册规则记为窄侧偏离约 2.5 %（Provisional，07 R045）。均值失效（+0.6…+1.7 \(\Delta\)C）仍成立。来源：reviews/W1_codexnim_claude.md、reviews/W1_hermes_claude.md、reviews/RT-43_triage_claude.md。W1 toy theory is reviewed (T229/E170, Provisional, 07 R037). Executable key |mean z| < 0.02 and |std z − 1| < 0.02. The codexnim arm: the position-fixed Fisher width \(V_{3p}\) passes at DET_ML \(\gtrsim\) 20 and at b = 0.005 (std z 0.98–1.00) and fails at DET_ML 6–20 with b \(\geq\) 0.02 (1.17–2.49, heavy upper tail, weakly identified position); the conditional mean \(\mu_{3p}\) is low by +0.8…+1.7 \(\Delta C\) in every cell with no passing mean formula; the masked (support-truncated) moments pass in 27 of 27 cells; the background-box term passes only at N_bg = 10,000. The Hermes arm's contrary conclusion was rejected by an arbiter run (see Problems). Late that day RT-43's triage (R042) located it further: the width-failure cells come from the codexnim arm's fitter \(widthlib.fit_3p\) walking to its \(\pm 8\) px position clip (0.3–2 % of reps; on one traced rep \(\Delta C\) 7.29 against 31.78), and the project Nelder–Mead gives std z 1.008 / 0.987 / 0.989 at the three disputed cells (N = 2000) with tail skew +0.51 (was +9.09); the width-failure half becomes Questioned; this stage (the T12 handbook refresh) re-ran the three disputed cells with the project fitter (N = 2000, seed 777) and got std z 1.008 / 1.010 / 0.963 against the recorded 1.171 / 2.486 / 1.331; the third cell misses R042's pre-registered |std z − 1| < 0.03 by −0.037, so the dispatcher declines the literal revert, deprecates the recorded failure and marks the width at (15.32, 0.08) open (narrower, not wider; a N = 10,000 re-run is queued, 07 R044); that re-run gives std z 0.975 (N = 10,000, about 3.6\(\sigma\) below 1), recorded by the pre-registered rule as a narrow-side departure of about 2.5 % (Provisional, 07 R045). The mean failure (+0.6…+1.7 \(\Delta\)C) stands. Sources: reviews/W1_codexnim_claude.md, reviews/W1_hermes_claude.md, reviews/RT-43_triage_claude.md.
• W2 宽度梯子：L1 std z 1.02–1.12，L0 的 1.45 / 1.52 是混合（R036、R039）The W2 width ladder: L1 std z 1.02–1.12 and L0's 1.45 / 1.52 is a mixture (R036, R039)：W2 已评审（T228，Provisional；L1 数字当天深夜按 R041 替换）。L1 emldetect：std z 0.95 / 0.975 / 1.00 / 1.02（DET_ML 6–10 / 10–20 / 20–50 / 50–100），mean z −0.05…−0.07——用 emldetect 实际得到的背景 BG_MAP_EML（注入水平 \(\times\) 位置曝光比）打分；原来用设计水平 b_true 打分得到的 std z 1.02 / 1.05 / 1.09 / 1.12、mean z +0.28…+0.47 与"PSF/通量标度"解释都由 R041 撤回，环结构与格间散布（\(\leq\) 0.03）一并消失（RT-45 分诊，5 material / 1 minor）。L0（我们的全局搜索拟合器）：合并 std 1.45 / 1.52（6–10 / 10–20）是两种总体的混合——拟合偏移 \(\hat{r}\) \(\leq\) 5 px 的行（59 % / 92 %）mean z \(\approx\) 0.00、std 0.89 / 0.96；> 5 px 的行 mean z −1.70 / −4.03，\(\Delta C\) 在插入式下方（r 上的平滑梯度加一个支撑墙总体，13 % 的 6–10 行在 r \(\geq\) 14.9 px、mean z −3.2）。DET_ML > 20 时 L0 std 1.01–1.07。两条读法撤回："look-elsewhere 抬高 \(\Delta C\)"符号相反（R036）；"近处行 0.89 / 0.96 就是给定 \((\hat{S}, b)\) 的宽度"——它按拟合结果条件化，R039 明确拒绝。来源：reviews/W2_001_claude.md、reviews/RT-40_triage_claude.md、reviews/RT-41_triage_claude.md。W2 is reviewed (T228, Provisional; the L1 numbers were replaced late that day by R041). L1 emldetect: std z 0.95 / 0.975 / 1.00 / 1.02 (DET_ML 6–10 / 10–20 / 20–50 / 50–100) with mean z −0.05…−0.07 — scored with the background emldetect was actually given (BG_MAP_EML, the injected level \(\times\) the position exposure ratio); the design-level b_true scoring's std z 1.02 / 1.05 / 1.09 / 1.12, mean z +0.28…+0.47 and the "PSF/flux-scale" explanation are all withdrawn by R041, and the ring structure and between-cell spread (\(\leq\) 0.03) disappear with them (RT-45's triage, 5 material / 1 minor). L0 (our global-search fitter): the pooled std 1.45 / 1.52 (6–10 / 10–20) is a mixture of two populations — rows with fitted offset \(\hat{r}\) \(\leq\) 5 px (59 % / 92 %) have mean z \(\approx\) 0.00 and std 0.89 / 0.96; rows > 5 px have mean z −1.70 / −4.03, with \(\Delta C\) below the plug-in (a smooth gradient in r plus a support-wall population, 13 % of the 6–10 rows at r \(\geq\) 14.9 px with mean z −3.2). Above DET_ML 20 the L0 std is 1.01–1.07. Two readings are withdrawn: "look-elsewhere raises \(\Delta C\)" has the opposite sign (R036), and "the near rows' 0.89 / 0.96 is the width given \((\hat{S}, b)\)" — it is conditioned on a fit outcome and R039 rejects it explicitly. Sources: reviews/W2_001_claude.md, reviews/RT-40_triage_claude.md, reviews/RT-41_triage_claude.md.
• SAS 22.1 对 20：emldetect 逐位一致，真背景生产无需版本注记（R034、R038）SAS 22.1 vs 20: emldetect is bit-identical, so the truth-background production needs no version caveat (R034, R038)：SAS 版本重放已评审（T227/E169，Provisional）。预注册规则 literal 执行：smoke 与联合臂 A 逐位一致（0/46 列不同），联合臂 B 与单图像全链 equivalent（最差每箱 |配对中位数| \(\Delta\)DET_ML 8.7e-4）。emldetect 7.7\(\to\)7.8 与 eboxdetect 4.28.4\(\to\)4.30.1 在同输入下输出逐位相同；唯一随版本变的是 esplinemap 5.4\(\to\)5.4.1 的 smooth 背景（约 32 % 像素确定性地变，相对最多 6.7 %），逐源 DET_ML 散布约 0.3 %（次要读数）。适用范围（R038）："无需版本注记"只对真背景生产成立（L1 单机 emldetect、J 臂 A）；J 臂 B（记录值 −7.43 %）与 T13 链走 esplinemap，引用要带一条注记。来源：reviews/SASVER_001_claude.md、reviews/RT-42_triage_claude.md。The SAS version replay is reviewed (T227/E169, Provisional). The pre-registered rule applied literally: the smoke case and joint arm A are bit-identical (0 of 46 columns differ), and joint arm B and the single-image full chain are equivalent (worst per-bin |paired median| \(\Delta\)DET_ML 8.7e-4). emldetect 7.7 \(\to\) 7.8 and eboxdetect 4.28.4 \(\to\) 4.30.1 give bit-identical output on identical inputs; the only release-dependent task is esplinemap 5.4 \(\to\) 5.4.1's smooth background (about 32 % of pixels change deterministically, up to 6.7 % relative), with a per-source DET_ML scatter of about 0.3 % (a secondary reading). Scope (R038): "no version caveat" holds for the truth-background production only (L1 standalone emldetect, J arm A); J arm B (recorded −7.43 %) and the T13 chain run esplinemap, so quoting them carries a caveat. Sources: reviews/SASVER_001_claude.md, reviews/RT-42_triage_claude.md.
• Q1（bonus）目标冻结 −9.282 %，试点的"L2d/\(\mu\) 4.9 %"是代码伪迹（R035）Q1 (bonus): the target is frozen at −9.282 % and the pilot's "L2d/\(\mu\) 4.9 %" was a code artefact (R035)：Q1 第 1–2 步已复核（07 R035，bonus 线）。目录目标冻结为 M2 b4 −9.282 % [−9.350, −9.219]（mean per-row，OBS_ID bootstrap，N 67,166，11,401 个观测）；Claude 用 cat_sens.py 复算复现。L2d 两种做法逐位相同（最大 |\(\Delta\)| 0.0）。试点的"L2d/\(\mu\) 4.9 % 对目录 8.3 %"是代码伪迹——模板只读到 9/19 个位置、NaN 行仍计入 \(\mu\)；更正后试点 10.4 % > 目录 8.3 %。R026 撤回原计划的结论仍成立（两个 6–10 窗口在 Ŝ 上不重叠，样本总体不同）。第 3 步（非平坦天空模拟）不派发。来源：reviews/Q1_s12_claude.md。Q1's steps 1–2 are rechecked (07 R035, bonus track). The catalogue target is frozen at M2 b4 −9.282 % [−9.350, −9.219] (mean per row, OBS_ID bootstrap, N 67,166, 11,401 observations); Claude reproduced it with cat_sens.py. The two L2d recipes are identical (max |\(\Delta\)| 0.0). The pilot's "L2d/\(\mu\) 4.9 % against the catalogue's 8.3 %" was a code artefact — the template loader read only 9 of 19 positions and NaN rows still counted toward \(\mu\); corrected, the pilot is 10.4 % > the catalogue's 8.3 %. R026's conclusion for withdrawing the original plan still stands (the two 6–10 windows are disjoint in Ŝ, so the samples differ). Step 3 (a non-flat-sky simulation) is not dispatched. Sources: reviews/Q1_s12_claude.md.

工作 / WorkWork

• 已交付与在跑的任务What reported and what is running：已交付并评审：W1 宽度理论（codexnim + Hermes 双臂，07:09Z 起，T229/E170）、W2 L0/L1 逐行宽度梯子（T228）、SAS 22.1 对 SAS 20 的源探测重放（T227/E169）、Q1 目标/L2d 任务第 1–2 步（R035）。在跑（结果未出，不得编造）：W3 全局搜索拟合器的条件律（codexnim + Hermes 双臂，12:54Z 起）——推导给定 \((\hat{S}, b, \hat{r})\) 的 \(\Delta C\) 条件律，再给出只看 \((\hat{S}, b)\) 的混合律，混合权重由源总体先验经贝叶斯导出；判据同上，另加 recert13 试点的 6–20 窗口。brief 的 ERRATA（15:41Z）更正了两条"已知"行。红队 RT-46（攻 R041 的 BG_MAP_EML 读法）与 RT-47（攻 T229/E170 的均值一半）在跑。宽度红队 RT-38 到 RT-45 已分诊——RT-44（攻 I011 的 ecut 比例冲突）当天分诊：ecut = 0.68 的截断机制保留（High），但"0.802 对 0.833 的吻合"撤回（0.802 是固定 S 在 (S 50, b 0.2) 的值，在审计所用的 b 0.0276 处它是 0.609；实测的 0.833 是无条件式宽度，蒙特卡洛在同样的 (S, b) 上给 0.821），引用任何截断比值必须同时给出 (S, b, PSF, 掩膜规则, 条件化方式)（07 R040；reviews/RT-44_triage_claude.md）。来源：08_RUNNING.md rev 37 §3、.agent/jobs/2026-10-17-detml-width-globalmle/BRIEF.md。Reported and reviewed: W1 width theory (codexnim + Hermes, two arms, from 07:09Z, T229/E170), the W2 L0/L1 per-row width ladder (T228), the SAS 22.1 vs SAS 20 source-detection replay (T227/E169) and Q1's target/L2d steps 1–2 (R035). Running (results pending, do not invent outcomes): W3, the conditional law for the global-search fitter (codexnim + Hermes, two arms, from 12:54Z) — derive the conditional law of \(\Delta C\) given \((\hat{S}, b, \hat{r})\), then the law given \((\hat{S}, b)\) alone as a mixture whose weight comes from the source population prior by Bayes; the same key, plus the recert13 pilot's 6–20 window. The brief's ERRATA (15:41Z) corrects two "Known" lines. Red teams RT-46 (attacking R041's BG_MAP_EML reading) and RT-47 (attacking the mean half of T229/E170) are running. The width red teams RT-38 through RT-45 are triaged — RT-44 (attacking I011's ecut ratio conflict) was triaged that day: the ecut = 0.68 truncation mechanism is kept (High) but the "0.802 against 0.833 agreement" is withdrawn (0.802 is the fixed-S value at (S 50, b 0.2) and becomes 0.609 at the audit's b 0.0276; the measured 0.833 is an unconditional-style width that Monte Carlo reproduces as 0.821 at the same (S, b)), and any truncation ratio must be quoted together with (S, b, PSF, mask rule, conditioning) (07 R040; reviews/RT-44_triage_claude.md). Sources: 08_RUNNING.md revision 37 §3 and .agent/jobs/2026-10-17-detml-width-globalmle/BRIEF.md.

问题 / ProblemsProblems

• 当天的更正与故障The day's corrections and failures：我的错误（Claude，已撤回并更正）：①"泊松散布不能解释 S90 超出"——只在图的 \(\Delta C_A=\lambda\) 约定下成立；\(\Delta C_A=\nu+\lambda\) 时展宽反而解释 +42…+87 % 的超出，且观测完备度（0.857–0.867）更接近后者（convB 0.855–0.878、convA 0.906–0.914）。已告知 PI 后自我更正（07 R031）。②"附录公式 A1 比 T3_joint_2D 差"——C-iso 上落在噪声内，应写持平（07 R029）。③RT-34 的"\(\sqrt{V}\) 窄 22–30 %"被我把分箱假象当成了宽度缺陷（07 R030）。worker 的错误：T13 第 7 阶段 worker 把 0.164 当成亏损份额，实际是 sum(1+r) 恢复比例；s7_part3.py:183-185 的 bug（07 R021）。W1 两臂结论相反，仲裁运行裁决（07 R037）：Hermes 臂报"位置自由时宽度处处失效"（std z 1.035–6.07，0/21 格通过），codexnim 臂与 Claude 用项目自己的 Nelder–Mead 拟合器、双起点、2,000 次重复复算的两格都不支持它（1.024 / 0.993）。Hermes item 1 被拒；疑似来源是该臂会话内自写的 Newton 拟合器（修过四个符号/比例 bug）在未归一化模板的拟合位置上求值。它的 1 参数参照（21/21 通过）成立。我在 T228 里重复了红队的一句旁证（07 R039）："该超出在 recert13 试点设计里不存在"是按观测 DET_ML 分箱造成的；按典型 DET_ML 分箱 recert13 给出 std 1.34 / 1.29、远行 28 % / 4.7 %（RT-40 的 1.015 / 0.997 作废）。匹配 S_true 下远行 mean z \(\approx\) −2.1 两种设计一致，变的是远行权重。W3 的两条"已知"行已用 ERRATA 更正。NIM 故障：RT-35（Hermes）106 条消息后以空回复结束、无报告（F027）；RT-39（Hermes）根会话加恢复会话各以空回复结束（F033），报告最终由恢复会话写出；RT-41 的根会话以 60 s 终端超时结束、无报告，恢复会话补写。目录已是 bonus，RT-35 不重派。T12 stage 14 第一次尝试恢复了一个错误的 4 天前会话，只改了部分 index.html 就空回复结束，还丢掉了评审横幅——已换新会话重做（resume_hermes.sh 的 glob 排序缺陷已修）。来源：04_DECISION_LOG.md 2026-10-17 02:16、06:49、07:10、08:02、08:55、10:43、10:45、12:57 条目、08_RUNNING.md rev 33、reviews/W1_hermes_claude.md、reviews/RT-41_triage_claude.md。My own errors (Claude, withdrawn and corrected): ① "The Poisson spread does not explain the S90 excess" — it holds only under the map's \(\Delta C_A=\lambda\) convention; under \(\Delta C_A=\nu+\lambda\) the smearing instead explains +42…+87 % of the excess, and the observed completeness (0.857–0.867) sits closer to the latter (convB 0.855–0.878, convA 0.906–0.914). Self-corrected after telling the PI (07 R031). ② "The appendix formula's A1 is worse than T3_joint_2D" — on C-iso it lies within noise, so write "par" (07 R029). ③ I took RT-34's "\(\sqrt{V}\) is 22–30 % too narrow" for a width defect when it was a binning artefact (07 R030). The worker's error: the T13 stage-7 worker read 0.164 as a share of the deficit when it is sum(1+r), a recovered fraction; the bug is at s7_part3.py:183-185 (07 R021). W1's two arms disagreed and an arbiter run decided (07 R037): the Hermes arm reported "the position-free width fails everywhere" (std z 1.035–6.07, 0 of 21 cells pass), which the codexnim arm and Claude's own recomputation with the project's Nelder–Mead fitter (two starts, 2,000 reps) do not support at two cells (1.024 / 0.993). The Hermes item 1 is rejected; the likely source is that arm's own in-session Newton fitter (four sign/scale bugs fixed) evaluating the theory at the fitted position with an unnormalised template. Its 1-parameter reference (21 of 21 pass) stands. I repeated a red team's side remark in T228 (07 R039): "the excess is absent in the recert13 pilot design" came from binning by observed DET_ML; by typical DET_ML recert13 gives std 1.34 / 1.29 with far fractions 28 % / 4.7 % (RT-40's 1.015 / 0.997 is void). At matched S_true the far rows' mean z \(\approx\) −2.1 agrees in both designs; what changes is the far-row weight. W3's two "Known" lines were corrected with an ERRATA. NIM failures: RT-35 (Hermes) ended with an empty reply after 106 messages and produced no report (F027); RT-39 (Hermes) ended with an empty final in both its root and resume sessions (F033), the report ultimately written by the resume; RT-41's root session ended on a 60 s terminal timeout without a report and the resume wrote it. The catalogue is bonus now, so RT-35 is not relaunched. T12 stage 14's first attempt resumed a wrong 4-day-old session, edited only part of index.html and ended with an empty reply, also dropping the reviewer banner — redone in a new session (the resume_hermes.sh glob-ordering defect is fixed). Sources: 04_DECISION_LOG.md 2026-10-17 02:16, 06:49, 07:10, 08:02, 08:55, 10:43, 10:45 and 12:57 entries, 08_RUNNING.md revision 33, reviews/W1_hermes_claude.md, reviews/RT-41_triage_claude.md.

待 PI 决定 / For the PIFor the PI

• 四项待决Four items pending：M31 灵敏度图的 \(\Delta C_A\) 约定：\(\lambda\) 还是 \(\nu+\lambda\)？这决定"泊松散布能不能解释 S90 超出"的答案（R031 已撤回原结论）。数据偏向 \(\nu+\lambda\)，但只能与图生成器或一次干净的逐能段注入一起定论；psf 网格缺失，图无法重建。CLAUDE.md 是否可以加入 lib/detml.py 的 inf 与 delta_c_nu3 两行（07 R022）：lib/detml.py 在 DET_ML \(\gtrsim\) 745 时返回 inf，目录列 delta_c_nu3 存的是 gammaincc 的第二个参数（\(\Delta C/2\)）而不是 \(\Delta C\) 本身。理论任务的派发规则（PI 2026-10-17 提出）：Claude 先写"已知结论 + 可执行判据"，两个独立臂并行，红队用数值反例攻击推导，Claude 复核判据脚本后才接受任何公式——已按此派发 W1 双臂与 W3 双臂；W1 的两臂分歧正是由仲裁运行（用项目自己的拟合器）裁决的，请确认这就是要的规则。Q1 第 3 步要不要派发（bonus）：非平坦天空模拟（b 0.03–0.14，先做固定 Ŝ 的少 b 探针）是 Q1 剩下的决定性一步；目录已是 bonus，不派发也可以接受。The M31 map's \(\Delta C_A\) convention: \(\lambda\) or \(\nu+\lambda\)? This decides whether the Poisson spread can explain the S90 excess (the original conclusion is withdrawn, R031). The data favour \(\nu+\lambda\), but the call needs the map generator or a clean per-band injection; the psf grid is absent, so the map cannot be regenerated. May CLAUDE.md get the two lib/detml.py lines (07 R022): lib/detml.py returns inf above DET_ML \(\gtrsim\) 745, and the catalogue column delta_c_nu3 stores gammaincc's second argument (\(\Delta C/2\)), not \(\Delta C\) itself. The theory-dispatch rule (raised by the PI on 2026-10-17): Claude writes the known results and the executable key first, two independent arms run in parallel, red teams attack the derivations with numerical counterexamples, and Claude replays each formula's test script before accepting it — W1's two arms and W3's two arms were dispatched this way, and W1's arm disagreement was settled by an arbiter run with the project's own fitter; please confirm this is the intended rule. Should Q1's step 3 be dispatched (bonus): the non-flat-sky simulation (b 0.03–0.14, a fixed-Ŝ few-b probe first) is the decisive step left for Q1; the catalogue is bonus now, so not dispatching it is acceptable.

2026-10-16 上午2026-10-16 (morning)

成果 / ResultsResults

• 联合拟合模拟复现了目录 6–10 亏损（Q1，接近定论）——当天下午撤回，见下一块。The joint-fit simulation reproduces the catalogue 6–10 deficit (Q1, nearly answered) — withdrawn later the same day, see the next block. 用已登记核、按 \(\hat{S}\) 分箱（典型 DET_ML 6–10，M2 band 4，真值背景）：模拟 A 臂 −8.2 %、DR14 背景 B 臂 −8.8 %（\(\pm\)2.6 %），目录 −10.4 %；2-D 位置损失 \(L_{2d}/\mu\) \(\approx\) 9.5 %，模拟付出约 86–93 % 的 2-D 损失；按 \(\hat{S}\) 条件化后背景通道只贡献约 −0.6 %。Provisional → Deprecated（07 R004；由 R015 取代，当天下午撤回，见下一块；红队检查 RT-23 正在查哪个 \(\delta\) 配方对）。来源：04_DECISION_LOG.md 2026-10-16 11:27 条目、reviews/RT-21_triage_claude.md。 With the registered kernel, binned by \(\hat{S}\) (typical DET_ML 6–10, M2 band 4, true background): simulation arm A −8.2 %, DR14-background arm B −8.8 % (\(\pm\)2.6 %), catalogue −10.4 %; the 2-D position loss \(L_{2d}/\mu\) \(\approx\) 9.5 %, and the simulation pays about 86–93 % of the 2-D loss; conditioned on \(\hat{S}\) the background channel adds only about −0.6 %. Provisional → Deprecated (07 R004; replaced by R015, withdrawn later the same day, see the next block; red-team check RT-23 is testing which \(\delta\) recipe is right). Sources: 04_DECISION_LOG.md 2026-10-16 11:27 entry, reviews/RT-21_triage_claude.md.
• 大位移组是"近邻环境"效应，不是源自身轮廓（Q2）。The big-shift group is a near-neighbour environment effect, not a source-profile effect (Q2). 预先登记的重注入：在大位移源的位置重新注入点源，95–96 % 出现同样的 A-vs-D 位移（对照组 0–6 %），比例随最近邻距离从 0.75（< 20″）降到 0（> 100″）。按预注册规则，原因是环境。Provisional（T223；"非点源作为原因"已 Deprecated）。它占目录 m 的份额还没测。来源：04_DECISION_LOG.md 2026-10-16 12:17 条目、07 R014。 Pre-registered re-injection: point sources placed at the big-shift positions reproduce the same A-vs-D shift in 95–96 % of cases (control 0–6 %), the fraction falling from 0.75 (< 20″) to 0 (> 100″) with nearest-neighbour distance. By the pre-registered rule the cause is the environment. Provisional (T223; "not PSF-like as the cause" is Deprecated). Its share of the catalogue's m is not yet measured. Sources: 04_DECISION_LOG.md 2026-10-16 12:17 entry, 07 R014.
• L0 主读数改为不截断值（IRON RULE）。The L0 primary reading is now the uncut value (IRON RULE). \(m_{L0}\) = 0.0038；0.0077 是 ML < 690 逐行截断值，只作敏感性。结论不变：底远小于目录的 m \(\approx\) 0.06。Trusted（T209；07 R002）。来源：reviews/RT-13_triage_claude.md。 \(m_{L0}\) = 0.0038; 0.0077 was a row-level ML < 690 cut and is now a sensitivity only. The verdict is unchanged: the floor is far below the catalogue's m \(\approx\) 0.06. Trusted (T209; 07 R002). Source: reviews/RT-13_triage_claude.md.
• 附录公式为什么有效（Q4）。Why the appendix formula works (Q4). 极大似然的得分方程让 \(\Delta C_{obs}\) − \(\Delta C_A\)(\(\hat{S}\)) 在一阶上为 0，\(\delta\) 与 V 是二阶项。零参数基线 appendix_eff 落在 M2 b4 C-iso 的样本外前沿上（6–10）：A1 0.153、A2 0.052；A1 优势来自省略的 \(\delta\)（6–10 为 −0.44，逐窗缩小到 >300 的 −0.06）；宽度优势只在 DET_ML < 20。（当天下午正式登记，见下一块。）Provisional（T216；07 R009）。来源：.agent/jobs/2026-10-16-detml-appendix-baseline/REVIEW_claude.md、reviews/RT-17_triage_claude.md。 The maximum-likelihood score equations make \(\Delta C_{obs}\) − \(\Delta C_A\)(\(\hat{S}\)) vanish to first order (equal to 0); \(\delta\) and V are second order. The zero-parameter baseline appendix_eff sits on the M2-b4 C-iso out-of-sample front (6–10): A1 0.153, A2 0.052; its A1 edge is the omitted \(\delta\) (−0.44 at 6–10, shrinking to −0.06 at >300); its width win holds only below DET_ML 20. (Registered later the same day, see the next block.) Provisional (T216; 07 R009). Sources: .agent/jobs/2026-10-16-detml-appendix-baseline/REVIEW_claude.md, reviews/RT-17_triage_claude.md.
• 双成分拟合：作为拟合成立，作为物理解释被质疑（Q3）。Two-component fit: good as a fit, questioned as physics (Q3). 两路独立拟合逐相机参数一致到 \(\pm\)0.002：\(m_{PN}\) 0.024 / \(m_{M1}\) 0.049 / \(m_{M2}\) 0.050，\(s_{PN}\) 0.12 / \(s_{M1}\) 0.11 / \(s_{M2}\) 0.095；共享模型（6–8 参数）留出 A1 0.09–0.10、A2 0.11–0.13。但 m 随离轴角变化可达 0.09（轴上最高），s 随背景上升（PN 0.090 → 0.139）；MOS 的超额更像约 11–12 % 的低效率子群体（偏低约 15 %），PN 才与逐源散布一致。Questioned（T212；07 R007）。来源：reviews/RT-18_triage_claude.md。 Two independent fits agree per camera to \(\pm\)0.002: \(m_{PN}\) 0.024 / \(m_{M1}\) 0.049 / \(m_{M2}\) 0.050, \(s_{PN}\) 0.12 / \(s_{M1}\) 0.11 / \(s_{M2}\) 0.095; the shared model (6–8 parameters) leaves A1 0.09–0.10, A2 0.11–0.13. But m moves with off-axis by up to 0.09 (on-axis highest) and s rises with background (PN 0.090 → 0.139); the MOS excess fits better as an about-11–12 % low-efficiency sub-population (about 15 % low), while PN is consistent with a per-source scatter. Questioned (T212; 07 R007). Source: reviews/RT-18_triage_claude.md.
• 宽度律在 DET_ML 20 以上被质疑（Q3）。The width laws are questioned above DET_ML 20 (Q3). C-all 的 A2 从 6–10 的 0.15–0.18 增到 >300 的 2.6–3.0（C-iso 0.08 → 0.61–0.74）；宽度律缺一个 \(\propto\)\(\mu\) 项，加 \(s^{2}\mu^{2}\) 可解释，s \(\approx\) 0.08（C-all）/ 0.04（C-iso）。Questioned（T220；07 R012）。来源：reviews/RT-16_triage_claude.md。 C-all's A2 grows from 0.15–0.18 at 6–10 to 2.6–3.0 at >300 (C-iso 0.08 → 0.61–0.74); the laws lack a \(\propto\)\(\mu\) term, and adding \(s^{2}\mu^{2}\) explains it, with s \(\approx\) 0.08 (C-all) / 0.04 (C-iso). Questioned (T220; 07 R012). Source: reviews/RT-16_triage_claude.md.
• M31 灵敏度图与观测完备度：还不能比（Q5）。The M31 sensitivity map versus observed completeness: not yet comparable (Q5). 图用 n = 有曝光的图像数把 \(\Delta C\) 换成 ML，归约的逐波段 EP ML 用 n = 有探测行的图像数（中位 3），ML = 6 时两者阈值差 1.56 倍。插值到匹配阈值给 S50 obs/map 1.33–1.46，但这个匹配本身没确立（审计运行中）。"图在 50 % 处偏保守"已撤回。Questioned（T218 Q3；07 R010）。M31 注入需要 s \(\approx\) 0.08，区间含 0.05 和 0.15（R011）。来源：reviews/RT-19_triage_claude.md。 The map converts \(\Delta C\) to ML with n = images with exposure, while the reduction's per-band EP ML uses n = images with a detection row (median 3); at ML = 6 the thresholds differ by 1.56\(\times\). Interpolating to a matched threshold gives S50 obs/map 1.33–1.46, but that matching is itself not established (audit running). "The map is conservative at 50 %" is withdrawn. Questioned (T218 Q3; 07 R010). The M31 injections need s \(\approx\) 0.08 with an interval including 0.05 and 0.15 (R011). Source: reviews/RT-19_triage_claude.md.

工作 / WorkWork

• T13 第 5 阶段（Hermes）：真值注入 399 个源，匹配器修好（跨观测匹配 53 → 0）。评审通过但更正了读法（T13_005_claude.md）。T13 stage 5 (Hermes): 399 injected sources, matcher fixed (cross-observation matches 53 → 0). Review PASS with a corrected reading (T13_005_claude.md).
• T13 第 6 阶段（Hermes）：剖析大位移组 + 真实环境重注入；评审后第 7 阶段已启动（\(\hat{S}\) 条件化残差、隔离运行、全目录 DIST_NN 分箱）。T13 stage 6 (Hermes): dissecting the big-shift group + real-environment re-injection; after review, stage 7 is running (\(\hat{S}\)-conditioned residual, isolation run, catalogue-wide DIST_NN binning).
• 红队 6 支跑完并分诊：RT-16（宽度律，2.4 h）、RT-17（附录基线，0.55 h）、RT-18（双成分，1.8 h）、RT-19（M31，3.0 h）、RT-20（T13 大位移，1.5 h）、RT-21（2-D 损失 vs E155，2.4 h）；RT-22（psfgen 模板）、RT-23（\(\delta\) 配方）在跑。6 red teams finished and were triaged: RT-16 (width laws, 2.4 h), RT-17 (appendix baseline, 0.55 h), RT-18 (two-component, 1.8 h), RT-19 (M31, 3.0 h), RT-20 (T13 big shift, 1.5 h), RT-21 (2-D loss vs E155, 2.4 h); RT-22 (psfgen template) and RT-23 (\(\delta\) recipe) are running.
• 认知库重组：02_CURRENT_QUESTION.md 重写（问题表 Q1–Q6）、新增 07_REVISION_LOG.md（R001–R013）、08_RUNNING.md、03_TRUST_TABLE.md（T209–T222）。Cognition-os restructure: 02_CURRENT_QUESTION.md rewritten (question table Q1–Q6), new 07_REVISION_LOG.md (R001–R013), 08_RUNNING.md, 03_TRUST_TABLE.md (T209–T222).
• 手册 v11 部署为 26ba754a；两处更正以横幅形式挂在部署副本上（本阶段已折进正文）。Handbook v11 deployed as 26ba754a; two corrections were posted as banners on the deployed copy (folded into the text this stage).
• L0 生产（virgo，无代理）：15:43Z 时 160/251 块，约每 45 分钟一块。L0 production (virgo, no agent): 160/251 chunks at 15:43Z, about one chunk per 45 min.

问题 / ProblemsProblems

• 我的错误（Claude，已撤回并更正）：My own errors (Claude, withdrawn and corrected):
  • T13_005 评审里"大位移组连纯点源拟合也有 \(m_D\) \(\approx\) 0.20"——\(m_X\) 是在 run X 自己拟合的流量上算 \(\mu\) 的，而该组 \(S_D\) 比目录流量高 25–40 %。按目录 \(\hat{S}\)（IRON RULE）算是 \(m_D\) \(\approx\) 0（M2）或为负（M1）。RT-20 分诊发现，已撤回；物理读法换证据后成立（翼部超额 4.4–4.6 倍、SC_EXT_ML +1.7/+0.3 对 −1.0、\(r_{cat}\) −0.26/−0.32 对 −0.06）。07 R006。In the T13_005 review, "the big-shift group has \(m_D\) \(\approx\) 0.20 even with the pure point fit" — \(m_X\) evaluates \(\mu\) at run X's own fitted flux, and \(S_D\) is 25–40 % above the catalogue flux on that group. At the catalogue \(\hat{S}\) (IRON RULE) it is \(m_D\) \(\approx\) 0 (M2) or negative (M1). Found by the RT-20 triage, withdrawn; the physical reading survives on other evidence (wing excess 4.4–4.6\(\times\), SC_EXT_ML +1.7/+0.3 vs −1.0, \(r_{cat}\) −0.26/−0.32 vs −0.06). 07 R006.
  • RT-15/E155 的"+0.069 差距"与"联合拟合模拟看不到 (1−w) 损失"——两者都用了 psf31 路线的 \(\mu\)（np.gradient 求导），其 \(\delta\) 只有已登记核的一半。RT-21 分诊后两条都撤回；改用已登记核、按 \(\hat{S}\) 分箱后，模拟在噪声内复现目录亏损。07 R003/R004。RT-15/E155's "+0.069 gap" and "the joint-fit simulation shows no (1−w) loss" — both used the psf31-route \(\mu\) (np.gradient derivatives), whose \(\delta\) is about half the registered kernel's. Both withdrawn after the RT-21 triage; with the registered kernel, binned by \(\hat{S}\), the simulation reproduces the catalogue deficit within noise. 07 R003/R004.
  • M31 一文的报告把方向写反了（"图偏保守"）；RT-19 复核后更正，实际是口径不一致，图在匹配口径下偏乐观。07 R010。The M31 report had the direction backwards ("the map is conservative"); the RT-19 recheck corrected it — it was a convention mismatch, and on matched conventions the map is optimistic. 07 R010.
  • 手册 v11 的附录基线一行照抄了已被 RT-17 限定范围的评审结论（"每个窗口都好 0.44"）；评审以横幅退回，本阶段折进正文。07 R009。Handbook v11's appendix-baseline row copied a review conclusion that RT-17 had already scoped ("0.44 in every window"); the review returned it as a banner, folded into the text this stage. 07 R009.
• 撤回的记录：Withdrawn records:
  • "展源效应就是 nmulsou=2 源拆分"（T13_005 checkpoint）→ 撤回：注入的大位移类靠拆分增加计数，目录的大位移组不拆分且减少计数。07 R005。"The extent effect is nmulsou=2 source splitting" (T13_005 checkpoint) → withdrawn: the injection's big-shift class gains counts by splitting, the catalogue's big-shift sources do not split and lose counts. 07 R005.
  • "目录 m 和 s 大部分来自左尾子群体"→ 对 m 撤回：\(\mu\) > 300 的 5 % 尾承担 55 % 的方差但只承担 33–43 % 的均值亏损，核心本身偏低 3 %（M1）/ 4 %（M2）；对 s 保留。07 R008。"Most of the catalogue's m and s is the left-tail sub-population" → withdrawn for m: at \(\mu\) > 300 the 5 % tail carries 55 % of the variance but only 33–43 % of the mean deficit, and the core itself sits 3 % low (M1) / 4 % low (M2); kept for s. 07 R008.
  • "约五分之一亮点源"只适用于这 30 个重拟合观测（M2 40/242、M1 54/223）；该组在左尾里富集 3–5 倍，但只占左尾约 25 %。07 R006。"About one in five bright sources" holds only in these 30 refitted observations (M2 40/242, M1 54/223); the group is 3–5\(\times\) enriched in the left tail but is about 25 % of it. 07 R006.
• T2（L1 生产）状态当天上午还写"未核实"；下午在 virgo 上找到进程与产物（13,414 个 parquet，最近 2 小时 388 个），改为"运行中，计数见 08_RUNNING"。T2 (L1 production) was still written as "unverified" in the morning; in the afternoon the process and products were found on virgo (13,414 parquets, 388 in the last 2 h) and the wording became "running, count in 08_RUNNING".
• NIM：draft-figs 的 codexnim 在报告写完后进入 DSML/true 循环约 3 h，已按 PID 文件停止，记入 F013 实例 2。NIM: draft-figs' codexnim entered a DSML/true loop for about 3 h after finishing its report; stopped by PID file, recorded as F013 instance 2.

待 PI 决定 / For the PIFor the PI

• 是否把附录基线条目（appendix_eff；appendix_psfgen 作参考）正式登记——建议等 RT-22（psfgen 模板高约 10 %）分诊后。Whether to register the appendix baseline entries (appendix_eff; appendix_psfgen as reference) — recommended after the RT-22 triage (psfgen template about 10 % high).
• 高 S 总体是否进层定义（T5/T11 暂停等这个）。Whether a high-S population enters the layer definitions (T5/T11 paused on this).
• M31 灵敏度图的口径审计结果会直接影响 PI 论文里的完备度关系，审计完成后需向 PI 报告。The M31 sensitivity-map convention audit directly affects the completeness relation in the PI's paper; report to the PI when it completes.

2026-10-152026-10-15

成果 / ResultsResults

• T13 第 2 阶段：m 的读数是"混合"。T13 stage 2: the reading of m is "mixed". 185 个观测、同一核、|r_uv| \(\leq\) 2 px 筛选：M2 \(m_{cat}\) 0.086 / \(m_{newcat}\) 0.083 / \(m_{local}\) 0.048；M1 0.067 / 0.065 / 0.033。约一半由 SAS 链产生，约一半在自己的重拟合里依然存在。Provisional（后被 RT-05 分诊发现位置文件 bug，逐行量作废；修正后的临时数字 \(m_{local}\) 0.061 / 0.038，见 07 R001）。来源：04_DECISION_LOG.md 2026-10-15 07:30 条目。 185 observations, one kernel, |r_uv| \(\leq\) 2 px cut: M2 \(m_{cat}\) 0.086 / \(m_{newcat}\) 0.083 / \(m_{local}\) 0.048; M1 0.067 / 0.065 / 0.033. About half is produced by the SAS chain, about half survives our own refit. Provisional (later the RT-05 triage found a position-file bug; the row-level quantities are void, corrected provisional \(m_{local}\) 0.061 / 0.038, see 07 R001). Source: 04_DECISION_LOG.md 2026-10-15 07:30 entry.
• 红队机制建立，第 1 轮 9 支（RT-01…RT-09）全部跑完并分诊。The red-team mechanism is established; round 1, 9 teams (RT-01…RT-09), all finished and triaged. 实质性更正：T13 第 2 阶段有位置错配 bug（RT-05）；">300" 窗口是 DET_ML > 300 不是 S > 300（RT-02）；2-D 位置损失收窄为"6–10 的数值修正，机制未确立"（RT-06）；排行榜噪声修正指标成立（RT-07）；灵敏度比较要用 50 % 完备度（RT-08）；emldetect 描述"\(\pm\)2 %"只是汇总中位数（RT-09）。来源：各 reviews/RT-*_triage_claude.md。 Material corrections: T13 stage 2 has a position-mismatch bug (RT-05); the ">300" window is DET_ML > 300, not S > 300 (RT-02); the 2-D position loss is narrowed to "a numerical 6–10 correction, mechanism not established" (RT-06); the leaderboard's noise-corrected metric stands (RT-07); sensitivity comparison must use 50 % completeness (RT-08); the emldetect description's "\(\pm\)2 %" is a pooled median only (RT-09). Sources: the respective reviews/RT-*_triage_claude.md.
• L0 对照的核心差距成立。The L0 control's core gap stands. 配对差 0.058 [0.056, 0.061]；措辞收窄为"星表及其处理链的性质，不是我们的拟合器或核"。Trusted（T209）。来源：reviews/RT-03_triage_claude.md。 Paired difference 0.058 [0.056, 0.061]; wording narrowed to "a property of the catalogue and its processing, not our fitter or kernel". Trusted (T209). Source: reviews/RT-03_triage_claude.md.
• M1 在 2012-12 的阶跃成立。The M1 step at 2012-12 stands. 日期预先登记；扫描 24 个日期后 Bonferroni p = 7\(\times\)\(10^{-11}\)；按年聚类区间 [−0.028, −0.007]；措辞为"在 CCD3 损坏的日期有阶跃"，不写"由损坏造成"。Provisional（T211 系列）。来源：reviews/RT-04_triage_claude.md。 Dates pre-registered; Bonferroni p = 7\(\times\)\(10^{-11}\) over 24 scanned dates; year-clustered interval [−0.028, −0.007]; worded "a step at the CCD3-loss date", not "caused by". Provisional. Source: reviews/RT-04_triage_claude.md.
• 高计数退化标记试行（用户决定）。High-count degradation flag on trial (user decision). 只有样本内的 V5c_eta 在两层都被标记（C-all 只在 BCa 下成立，C-iso 在所有方法下成立）；6 个零参数条目都显著优于不修正。只作报告，不进前沿。来源：04_DECISION_LOG.md 2026-10-15 09:50 条目。 Only the in-sample V5c_eta is flagged on both layers (C-all under BCa only, C-iso under every method); the 6 zero-parameter entries are all significantly better than no correction. Report only, not the front. Source: 04_DECISION_LOG.md 2026-10-15 09:50 entry.
• T13 第 3 阶段：管线复现验证成功。T13 stage 3: the pipeline replica is validated. 复现 A 与 2024 星表 DET_ML 之比中位数 0.9998（M2）/ 0.9995（M1）——首个 SAS 对 SAS 验证过的复现；联合拟合（B）与截断支撑（C）不是机制。Provisional（T13_003，通过附条件）。来源：reviews/T13_003_claude.md。 The replica A matches the 2024 catalogue DET_ML with per-observation median ratio 0.9998 (M2) / 0.9995 (M1) — the first SAS-vs-SAS validated replica; the joint fit (B) and truncated support (C) are not the mechanism. Provisional (T13_003, PASS with conditions). Source: reviews/T13_003_claude.md.

工作 / WorkWork

• T13 第 2 阶段评审（185 个观测）并批准第 3 阶段；第 3 阶段在 virgo 上用 SAS 逐项拆分。T13 stage 2 reviewed (185 observations) and stage 3 approved; stage 3 runs the SAS decomposition on virgo.
• 红队 RT-01…RT-09 依次跑完并分诊，每支 0.4–5.1 h；RT-10（先验效应）、RT-11（MASKFRAC）随后启动。Red teams RT-01…RT-09 finished and were triaged in turn, 0.4–5.1 h each; RT-10 (prior effect) and RT-11 (MASKFRAC) then launched.
• 手册部署 v8（6dd44fbb）→ v9；高计数报告页更新（eab6c0aa）、试行表发布（13114f14）。Handbook deployed v8 (6dd44fbb) → v9; high-count report page updated (eab6c0aa), trial table published (13114f14).
• T5_015 评审通过：区间根因修复（bootstrap 现在直接计算所报告的 \(A1_{nc}\)，440/440 区间含点估计，70/70 标记判定不变）。T5_015 review PASS: interval root cause fixed (the bootstrap now evaluates the reported \(A1_{nc}\); 440/440 intervals contain their point, 70/70 flag verdicts unchanged).

问题 / ProblemsProblems

• 我的错误（Claude，已更正）：My own errors (Claude, corrected):
  • RT-01 分诊里接受逐行读数前没有核对行的身份——T13 第 2 阶段的位置文件有 bug，约 90 % 的行用了别的源的位置（RT-05 发现）。已作废相关结论并重做。In the RT-01 triage I accepted the row-level readings without checking row identity — T13 stage 2's position file has a bug, about 90 % of rows used another source's position (found by RT-05). The affected conclusions are void and the stage is being redone.
  • ">300" 窗口在评审、决策记录和网页上都写成了 S > 300（RT-02 更正为 DET_ML > 300）；网页措辞已改并告知用户。The ">300" window was written as S > 300 in the review, the decision log and the site (RT-02 corrected it to DET_ML > 300); the site wording was fixed and the user informed.
• T13 会话一度陷入重复循环（连续 336 次同一条 ls 命令），记为 NIM F005；已重启并加防循环规则。A T13 session fell into a repetition loop (336 identical ls commands in a row), recorded as NIM F005; restarted with anti-loop rules added.
• ML→\(\Delta C\) 换算在 ML ≳ 745 处下溢（erfcx 恒等式修复，往返 4.4e-13）；>300 窗口曾因此作废，修复后恢复。The ML→\(\Delta C\) inversion underflows at ML ≳ 745 (fixed with the exact erfcx identity, round trip 4.4e-13); the >300 window had been voided for this and was restored after the fix.

待 PI 决定 / For the PIFor the PI

• 高计数退化标记是否扩展到 >300（已试行，用户 09:50 批准试行；仍待正式决定）。Whether to extend the high-count degradation flag to >300 (on trial, approved for trial by the user at 09:50; the formal decision is pending).
• 高 S 总体是否进层定义。Whether a high-S population enters the layer definitions.

2026-10-142026-10-14

成果 / ResultsResults

• 乘性亏损来自真实数据（接受）。The multiplicative deficit belongs to the real data (accepted). 加筛选后 L0 的 m = 0.0078，星表 m 减 L0 m = 0.058，区间不含 0；C-all 上 m 不随离轴环、不随背景变化；共同行上 C-all 与 C-iso 的 m 没有差别。Trusted（T209）。来源：04_DECISION_LOG.md 2026-10-13 22:40 条目。 With the cut, L0's m = 0.0078 and catalogue m minus L0 m = 0.058, interval excluding 0; on C-all m has no ring and no background dependence; on common rows C-all and C-iso m are identical. Trusted (T209). Source: 04_DECISION_LOG.md 2026-10-13 22:40 entry.
• 核函数高 S 失效确诊为网格覆盖范围。The kernel's high-S failure is diagnosed as grid coverage. E114 网格只覆盖 S = 1–400，之上线性外推；\(S_{kernel}\) \(\approx\) 673 时 frac = +0.21、1122 时 +0.65。第 13 阶段把 15 个网格扩展到 S = 5000 后关闭。Trusted。来源：04_DECISION_LOG.md 2026-10-13 22:40、2026-10-14 05:15 条目。 The E114 grid covers only S = 1–400 and extrapolates linearly above; frac = +0.21 at \(S_{kernel}\) \(\approx\) 673 and +0.65 at 1122. Stage 13 extended all 15 grids to S = 5000 and closed it. Trusted. Sources: 04_DECISION_LOG.md 2026-10-13 22:40 and 2026-10-14 05:15 entries.
• "每相机一个常数 m"假说被否定。The "one constant m per camera" hypothesis is refuted. 用高计数冻结的 m_cam 预测低窗口，12 个配置里只有 4 个闭合（预先固定判读"未闭合"）；m 随波段增大（b4−b1 \(\approx\) +0.034），PN b1 为负。Trusted。来源：04_DECISION_LOG.md 2026-10-14 00:50 条目。 A high-count-frozen m_cam closes only 4 of 12 configs in the low windows (pre-registered verdict "not closed"); m grows with band (b4−b1 \(\approx\) +0.034), PN b1 negative. Trusted. Source: 04_DECISION_LOG.md 2026-10-14 00:50 entry.
• m 随时间下降，M1 在 2012-12 有阶跃。m falls with time; M1 has a step at 2012-12. 三台相机都随年代漂移约 −0.001/年；M1 另有一个只在 2012-12（MOS1 CCD3 损失）处的阶跃 −0.016；不是覆盖效应；星表协变量都解释不了漂移。Provisional（T11_025/026）。来源：04_DECISION_LOG.md 2026-10-14 06:35、08:20、09:55 条目。 All three cameras drift by about −0.001/yr; M1 additionally has a step of −0.016 only at 2012-12 (the MOS1 CCD3 loss); not a coverage effect; no catalogued covariate explains the drift. Provisional (T11_025/026). Sources: 04_DECISION_LOG.md 2026-10-14 06:35, 08:20, 09:55 entries.
• 高计数第一份报告：8 个条目都没有触发退化标记。First high-count report: 8 entries, none triggers the degradation flag. 每个修正条目在 50 以内所有窗口的 A1 都比未修正参照低，配对区间上端 \(\leq\) −0.060；6–10 结果按 1e-12 复现。Provisional（T5_007）。来源：04_DECISION_LOG.md 2026-10-13 17:25 条目。 Every corrected entry has lower A1 than the uncorrected reference in all windows up to 50, paired-interval upper ends \(\leq\) −0.060; 6–10 reproduces to 1e-12. Provisional (T5_007). Source: 04_DECISION_LOG.md 2026-10-13 17:25 entry.
• ML→\(\Delta C\) 高 ML 溢出被发现，>300 窗口一度作废。The ML→\(\Delta C\) high-ML overflow is found; the >300 window is voided for a while. exp(−ML) 在 ML ≳ 745 下溢为 inf；用精确 erfcx 恒等式修复（往返 4.4e-13）。Trusted（T5_012/013）。来源：04_DECISION_LOG.md 2026-10-14 12:40 条目。 exp(−ML) underflows to inf at ML ≳ 745; fixed with the exact erfcx identity (round trip 4.4e-13). Trusted (T5_012/013). Source: 04_DECISION_LOG.md 2026-10-14 12:40 entry.

工作 / WorkWork

• T5 第 10–14 阶段：扩展核网格、高计数 (m, a) 拟合、L0 检验、drift 表；T5_010/011/013/014 依次评审通过。T5 stages 10–14: extend the kernel grids, high-count (m, a) fit, L0 check, drift table; T5_010/011/013/014 reviewed PASS in turn.
• T11 第 19–26 阶段：冻结 MC 网格、\(\hat{S}\) 条件检验、按星表列拆分 m；T11_026 评审后星表列路线走完，T11 暂停。T11 stages 19–26: frozen MC grids, \(\hat{S}\)-conditioned checks, splitting m by catalogue columns; after T11_026 the catalogue-column route is exhausted and T11 is paused.
• 用户批准真实图像本地重拟合，派发新任务 T13（2026-10-14 10:10）。The user approved the real-image local refit and task T13 was dispatched (2026-10-14 10:10).
• T13 第 1 阶段评审通过（产品路线端到端打通、版本陷阱：档案现为 2024 重处理）；手册 v4–v7 依次部署。T13 stage 1 review PASS (product route verified end to end; version trap: the archive now serves the 2024 reprocessing); handbook v4–v7 deployed in turn.

问题 / ProblemsProblems

• 我的错误（Claude，已更正）：My own errors (Claude, corrected):
  • T11_019 评审：冻结设置里"这就是目录评分的对象"那句话是错的，当初是我批准的——MC 求的是 E[\(\Delta C\) | \(S_{true}\)]，目录按 \(\hat{S}\) 分箱评分（IRON RULE）。T11_019 review: the frozen setup's sentence "this is what the catalogue scoring targets" was wrong and I had approved it — the MC computes E[\(\Delta C\) | \(S_{true}\)] while the catalogue is scored binned by \(\hat{S}\) (IRON RULE).
  • T11_020 平坦性检验比错了对象（用了"修正后减修正前"而非修正后残差本身）；我的提示词措辞含糊，也有责任。T11_020's flatness check compared the wrong objects (corrected-minus-uncorrected instead of the corrected residual itself); my prompt wording was ambiguous, which is also my responsibility.
  • T12_002 评审：我在上一轮说 --open-private 存在，其实只出现在 docstring 里。T12_002 review: in the previous round I said --open-private exists; it only appeared in a docstring.
• T13 会话一度陷入重复循环（详见 10-15 的问题段）；干跑输出误写进 T11 目录，已自行删除。A T13 session fell into a repetition loop (see the 10-15 Problems block); a dry-run output was mistakenly written into T11's directory and was deleted.
• 手册 v2 的 A3 一格写"已优于 V5c"，但配对区间 [−0.012, +0.002] 含 0，改为"持平"。Handbook v2's A3 cell said "already better than V5c", but the paired interval [−0.012, +0.002] contains 0; changed to "no significant difference".

待 PI 决定 / For the PIFor the PI

• 高计数退化标记要不要进入前沿选择（用户 10-13 要求"不能只在 ML 6–10 看验收"，并批准先作报告项）。Whether the high-count degradation flag enters front selection (the user asked on 10-13 that acceptance not look only at ML 6–10, and approved reporting it first).
• a 和 m 作为高计数报告列（用户 10-13 20:45 已同意）。a and m as high-count report columns (agreed by the user at 10-13 20:45).

2026-10-132026-10-13

成果 / ResultsResults

• 2 个零参数 2-D 损失条目正式登记，v2 网页更新。2 zero-parameter 2-D loss entries registered; the v2 site updated. C-iso：T3_joint_2D A1 0.132 / A2 0.111 / A3 0.027；T3_E147mix_2D A1 0.157 / A2 0.080 / A3 0.036；V5c_eta（样本内，6 参数）A1 0.125 / A2 0.049 / A3 0.035。两层的样本外前沿变为 {T3_joint_2D, T3_E147mix_2D, T3_E147mix_jointW}。Provisional（T11_014）。来源：04_DECISION_LOG.md 2026-10-13 03:30 条目。 C-iso: T3_joint_2D A1 0.132 / A2 0.111 / A3 0.027; T3_E147mix_2D A1 0.157 / A2 0.080 / A3 0.036; V5c_eta (in-sample, 6 parameters) A1 0.125 / A2 0.049 / A3 0.035. Both layers' out-of-sample fronts become {T3_joint_2D, T3_E147mix_2D, T3_E147mix_jointW}. Provisional (T11_014). Source: 04_DECISION_LOG.md 2026-10-13 03:30 entry.
• 冻结 MC 网格完成，判读"介于两者之间"。The frozen MC grid finishes; verdict "in between". 固定 \(S_{true}\) 时，局部拟合的条件均值在全部 108 个格点都高于 \(\mu_{3p}\) + \(\delta_{E086}\)（z = 4–42）；超出量在 band 和离轴半径上平，随 b 增大、随 S 减小——低信噪比下展开截断的特征，属局部拟合器本身性质。Provisional（T11_019）。来源：04_DECISION_LOG.md 2026-10-13 06:40 条目。 At fixed \(S_{true}\), the local fit's conditional mean exceeds \(\mu_{3p}\) + \(\delta_{E086}\) at all 108 grid points (z = 4–42); the excess is flat in band and off-axis radius, growing with b and shrinking with S — a truncation signature at low SNR, a property of the local fitter itself. Provisional (T11_019). Source: 04_DECISION_LOG.md 2026-10-13 06:40 entry.
• 相机分化发现：PN 能用 (1−w) 闭合，2-D 修正在 PN 上扣多了。Camera split found: PN closes with (1−w); the 2-D correction over-subtracts on PN. 6–10 窗口 PN 的 A1 0.01–0.07，2-D 修正扣多了约 +0.06；MOS 用 2-D 修正更好。Provisional（T11_020）。来源：04_DECISION_LOG.md 2026-10-13 08:50 条目。 In 6–10 PN's A1 is 0.01–0.07 and the 2-D correction over-subtracts by about +0.06; MOS does better with the 2-D correction. Provisional (T11_020). Source: 04_DECISION_LOG.md 2026-10-13 08:50 entry.
• 本项目交接网站立项并开工。This hand-off site is commissioned and starts. 用户要求做一个 Cloudflare 网页，讲清项目背景、设计、进展与计划，交给一年级物理本科生、不用 AI 手动继续；执行者指定为 Hermes，实验编号 E163。Provisional。来源：04_DECISION_LOG.md 2026-10-13 05:02 条目。 The user asked for a Cloudflare site explaining the project's background, design, progress and plan for a first-year physics undergraduate to continue by hand without AI; Hermes is the named executor, experiment E163. Provisional. Source: 04_DECISION_LOG.md 2026-10-13 05:02 entry.

工作 / WorkWork

• T11 第 19–21 阶段：冻结 MC 网格判读、窗口平坦性检验、\(\hat{S}\) 条件总体 MC 预冻结。T11 stages 19–21: frozen MC grid verdict, window-flatness check, \(\hat{S}\)-conditioned population MC pre-frozen.
• T12 第 1–3 阶段：建站、工作台首页、v4 部署（d92ad4e5）。T12 stages 1–3: build the site, workbench home page, deploy v4 (d92ad4e5).
• virgo 临时目录迁移到 8 TB 盘（/tmp 占用 10.7 GB 已清空，根分区 304 → 277 GB）。virgo's temp directory moved to the 8 TB disk (/tmp's 10.7 GB freed, root partition 304 → 277 GB).
• handbook skill 建立并升到 0.3.0；检查频率改为 50 分钟一次。The handbook skill is created and raised to 0.3.0; check frequency changed to every 50 minutes.

问题 / ProblemsProblems

• zsh 不拆分 PID 列表，virgo 监督进程的子进程成了孤儿；已按 PID 文件改用 bash 处理，孤儿自行退出。zsh does not split PID lists, so the supervisor's children on virgo became orphans; handled by PID file with bash, and the orphans exited on their own.
• T11_019 评审发现：冻结设置里"这就是目录评分的对象"那句话是错的，当初是我批准的（详见 10-14 的问题段）。T11_019 review found the frozen setup's "this is what the catalogue scoring targets" was wrong and I had approved it (see the 10-14 Problems block).
• L0 与 L1 的生产一度因 /tmp 迁移暂停，迁移完成后从 8 TB 盘重启。L0 and L1 production paused for the /tmp migration and restarted from the 8 TB disk afterwards.

待 PI 决定 / For the PIFor the PI

• 验收不能只看 ML 6–10（用户 12:45 三项要求之一）：6–10 仍是唯一前沿依据，10–20、20–50、50–100 作报告项，>100 只作背景。Acceptance must not look only at ML 6–10 (one of the user's three requirements at 12:45): 6–10 remains the only front-selection basis, 10–20, 20–50 and 50–100 are report items, >100 background only.
• 高计数退化标记是否进前沿选择：等第一份报告出来后由用户决定。Whether the high-count degradation flag enters front selection: the user decides after the first report.

2026-10-16 下午2026-10-16 (afternoon)

按 04_DECISION_LOG.md 的补记条目逐条记录；每条数字都从 cited 记录里原样抄来。上午的部分见上一块。Recorded entry by entry from the 04_DECISION_LOG.md addenda; every number is copied verbatim from the cited record. The morning part is in the previous block.

成果 / ResultsResults

• Q1 改口径（后被 RT-26 进一步推翻，见晚间块）：联合模拟改用目录的背景口径后，与目录还差 3–4.5 %。Q1 changes convention (later overturned further by RT-26, see the evening block): with the catalogue's background convention the joint simulation is 3–4.5 % from the catalogue. 我在 RT-21 分诊里给模拟用的是真背景，目录只能用 emldetect 的估计背景。同一约定（估计背景，M2 band 4，典型 DET_ML 6–10，全部 19 个位置）：A 臂 −5.9 %、B 臂 −7.4 %（位置聚类 \(\pm\)0.7–0.8 %），目录 −10.4 %；\(\pm\)2.6 % 的误差棒约宽了 2.5 倍。"模拟在噪声内复现目录"撤回，"背景通道 −0.6 %"撤回。红队怀疑 2-D 损失过滤（丢 59 % 行）有选择效应：去掉过滤重跑，数字几乎不变，驳回。核 \(\delta\) 对 emldetect 是对的（E094 实测 +1.18，解析 \(\approx\) 1.2，np.gradient \(\approx\) 0.6）。Questioned（T210 闭合部分；07 R015；reviews/RT-23_triage_claude.md）。下一步：用估计背景在所有窗口给联合模拟打分。 In the RT-21 triage I gave the simulation the TRUE background, while the catalogue can only use emldetect's ESTIMATED background. Under one convention (estimated background, M2 band 4, typical DET_ML 6–10, all 19 positions): arm A −5.9 %, arm B −7.4 % (position cluster \(\pm\)0.7–0.8 %), catalogue −10.4 %; the \(\pm\)2.6 % error bar was about 2.5\(\times\) too wide. "The simulation reproduces the catalogue within noise" is withdrawn, and so is "background channel −0.6 %". The red team suspected the 2-D-loss filter (59 % of rows dropped) selects; I re-ran without it and the numbers barely moved, so the objection is rejected. The kernel \(\delta\) is right for emldetect (E094 measured +1.18, analytic \(\approx\) 1.2, np.gradient \(\approx\) 0.6). Questioned (T210's closure part; 07 R015; reviews/RT-23_triage_claude.md). Next: score the joint simulation over all windows with the estimated background.
• 大位移组是"近邻环境"效应（Q2，T223 Provisional）。The big-shift group is a near-neighbour environment effect (Q2, T223 Provisional). T13_006 评审（07 R014）：预注册的重注入在大位移源位置上再现同样的 A-vs-D 位移，95–96 % 对对照组 0–6 %，比例随最近邻距离从 0.75（< 20″）降到 0（> 100″）。只能比 big \(\div\) control：重注入 0.846（M2）/ 0.802（M1），目录 0.932 / 0.868。最近邻距离 34–36″ 对 55–57″。三句读法撤回：①"三位小数吻合"是巧合（注入模板比拟合高约 10 %，对照组 1.10–1.13）；②"D 高估 30 %"不成立；③"即两成分拟合的 15 % 左尾"与 R006/R008 矛盾。它占目录 m 的份额还没测 → 待定 / Pending（T13 第 7 阶段在跑）。 The T13_006 review (07 R014): the pre-registered re-injection reproduces the same A-vs-D shift at the big-shift positions in 95–96 % of cases against 0–6 % for controls, the fraction falling from 0.75 (< 20″) to 0 (> 100″) with nearest-neighbour distance. Only big \(\div\) control is comparable: re-injection 0.846 (M2) / 0.802 (M1), catalogue 0.932 / 0.868. Nearest-neighbour distance 34–36″ against 55–57″. Three sentences withdrawn: ①"matches to three decimals" is a coincidence (the injected template sits \(\approx\) 10 % above what the fit recovers; control 1.10–1.13); ②"D over-fits by 30 %" does not hold; ③"the same population as the two-component fit's ~15 % left tail" contradicts R006/R008. Its share of the catalogue's m is not yet measured → Pending (T13 stage 7 is running).
• M31 灵敏度图（数字后被 RT-24 复核推翻并撤回，见晚间块）。The M31 sensitivity map (its numbers were later overturned and withdrawn by RT-24's recheck, see the evening block). ML 约定审计（07 R016；.agent/jobs/2026-10-16-detml-m31-ml-convention/REVIEW_claude.md）：SAS 的 DET_ML 里 n 数的是"相机 \(\times\) 能段"，不是观测数（单相机单能段 n = 1，全 EPIC 全能段 \(\approx\) 15）。灵敏度图每像素的 n 是有曝光的图像数（1–8，众数 3，从不为 9）；RT-19 的"匹配阈值"假设 n = 9，过度修正。两边都按图自己的 n：S50 观测/图 0.95–0.99（5 个能段），S90 1.11–1.20（波段 1–4）。"图偏保守"与"1.33–1.46\(\times\)"都已撤回。这是逐能段探测，不是目录成员资格。Provisional（T218 Q3）；红队 RT-24 正在复核 → 待定 / Pending。 The ML-convention audit (07 R016; .agent/jobs/2026-10-16-detml-m31-ml-convention/REVIEW_claude.md): in SAS's DET_ML, n counts cameras \(\times\) bands, not observations (one camera one band n = 1, all-EPIC all-band \(\approx\) 15). The map's per-pixel n is the number of exposed images (1–8, mode 3, never 9); RT-19's "matched threshold" assumed n = 9 and over-corrected. With both sides at the map's own n: S50 observed/map 0.95–0.99 (5 bands), S90 1.11–1.20 (bands 1–4). "The map is conservative" and "1.33–1.46\(\times\)" are both withdrawn. This is per-band detection, not catalogue membership. Provisional (T218 Q3); red team RT-24 is rechecking it → Pending.
• psfgen 与有效模板的差换了归因：两个方向相反的大效应留下 6–25 % 残差。The psfgen-vs-effective template offset has a new attribution: two larger opposite effects leave a 6–25 % residual. RT-22 分诊（07 R017；reviews/RT-22_triage_claude.md）：两个条目用的是同一个 psfgen 光栅，不是"捕获通量"不同。差异是捕获模板核心更宽（约 11 %）与 E114 核的按支持域振幅约定（约 12 %，方向相反）的残差；footprint \(\leq\) 0.01 %。M2 band 4 上范围 1.06–1.25，波段 1–4 为 1.083–1.121，波段 5（1.20–1.25）排除。"psfgen 灵敏度图高估 \(\Delta C\) 约 10 %"撤回：M31 上 psfgen/解析比为 1.006–1.064，是不同的比较。Provisional（T217）。 The RT-22 triage (07 R017; reviews/RT-22_triage_claude.md): both entries are built from the same psfgen raster, so it is not "captured flux". The difference is the residual of a genuinely broader captured core (\(\approx\) 11 %) against the E114 kernel's per-support amplitude convention (\(\approx\) 12 %, opposite sign); footprint \(\leq\) 0.01 %. The range is 1.06–1.25 by position on M2 band 4, 1.083–1.121 for bands 1–4, band 5 (1.20–1.25) excluded. "psfgen sensitivity maps over-predict \(\Delta C\) by about 10 %" is withdrawn: on M31 the psfgen/analytic ratio is 1.006–1.064, a different comparison. Provisional (T217).
• 附录基线正式登记（4 个条目，排行榜 20 条）。The appendix baseline is registered (4 entries; the leaderboard has 20). PI 2026-10-16 批准后登记：C_all_appendix_eff、C_iso_appendix_eff、C_all_appendix_psfgen（参考）、C_iso_appendix_psfgen（参考），零参数，范围按 T216/T217（M2 band 4；A1 优势只在 6–10；宽度 20 以下最好；波段 1–4）。DET_ML 6–10 的噪声校正分数（均值 / 宽度）：eff C-all 0.2543 / 0.1185；eff C-iso 0.1527 / 0.0523；psfgen C-all 0.9955 / 0.0590；psfgen C-iso 0.8855 / 0.0643。6–10 前沿：C-iso 样本外由 {T3_joint_2D, T3_E147mix_2D, T3_E147mix_jointW} 变为 {T3_joint_2D, appendix_eff}——T3_E147mix_2D 与 T3_E147mix_jointW 被 appendix_eff 支配而退出前沿（少了两个成员，不是"不变"）；C-all 样本外 {T3_E147mix_2D, T3_joint_2D, appendix_eff, appendix_psfgen}（psfgen 只因宽度进入三轴前沿）；样本内仍只有 {V5c_eta}（这一层确实不变）。Provisional（T216）。来源：04_DECISION_LOG.md 2026-10-16 14:06、14:09 条目；前沿成员照 benchmark/entries_v2/_fronts_*.json 复核（2026-10-17）。 Registered after the PI's 2026-10-16 approval: C_all_appendix_eff, C_iso_appendix_eff, C_all_appendix_psfgen (reference), C_iso_appendix_psfgen (reference), zero parameters, scoped per T216/T217 (M2 band 4; the A1 edge only at 6–10; width best below 20; bands 1–4). Noise-corrected scores at DET_ML 6–10 (mean / width): eff C-all 0.2543 / 0.1185; eff C-iso 0.1527 / 0.0523; psfgen C-all 0.9955 / 0.0590; psfgen C-iso 0.8855 / 0.0643. The 6–10 front: on C-iso the out-of-sample front changed from {T3_joint_2D, T3_E147mix_2D, T3_E147mix_jointW} to {T3_joint_2D, appendix_eff} — T3_E147mix_2D and T3_E147mix_jointW are dominated by appendix_eff and left the front (two members lost, not "unchanged"); on C-all the out-of-sample front is {T3_E147mix_2D, T3_joint_2D, appendix_eff, appendix_psfgen} (psfgen is on the three-axis front only through its width); in-sample still holds only {V5c_eta} (that layer genuinely is unchanged). Provisional (T216). Sources: 04_DECISION_LOG.md 2026-10-16 14:06 and 14:09 entries; front membership re-checked against benchmark/entries_v2/_fronts_*.json (2026-10-17).

工作 / WorkWork

• T13_006 评审（07 R014，T223）；RT-23 分诊（07 R015）；M31 ML 约定审计评审（07 R016）；RT-22 分诊（07 R017）。T13_006 reviewed (07 R014, T223); RT-23 triaged (07 R015); the M31 ML-convention audit reviewed (07 R016); RT-22 triaged (07 R017).
• 附录基线登记（4 个条目）并重算前沿；RT-24（M31 图）与 RT-25（登记分数）两支红队启动；T13 第 7 阶段换到新会话继续。The appendix baseline registered (4 entries) and the fronts recomputed; red teams RT-24 (M31 map) and RT-25 (the registered scores) launched; T13 stage 7 moved to a new session.
• PI 批准三项：附录基线登记、高 S 总体进入层定义、50 分钟 cron 提示词缩短为"读 08_RUNNING.md 并执行"（完整步骤移入 08 §0）。The PI approved three items: registering the appendix baseline, adding a high-S population to the layer definitions, and shortening the 50-minute cron prompt to "read 08_RUNNING.md and act" (the full steps moved into 08 §0).
• 冷启动演练 1（codexnim，15:51→16:28Z，37 min，17 个文件）：7 个部分的回答对 15:50Z 快照全部正确并带 file:line 收据；16 个缺口已评完，14 个已修（G-15 按设计由调度方修，G-10 部分修）。skill research-cognition-os 升到 0.3.2。Cold-start drill 1 (codexnim, 15:51→16:28Z, 37 min, 17 files): the answers to all 7 sections were correct for the 15:50Z snapshot with file:line receipts; of the 16 gaps, 14 are fixed (G-15 is fixed by the dispatcher by design, G-10 partly). The research-cognition-os skill goes to 0.3.2.
• L1 生产在 virgo 上运行（13,414 个 parquet，最近 2 小时 388 个；08_RUNNING.md §3 有核对命令与最近核实时间）。L1 production is running on virgo (13,414 parquets, 388 in the last 2 h; 08_RUNNING.md §3 carries the check command and the last-verified stamp).

问题 / ProblemsProblems

• 我的错误（Claude，已撤回并更正）：My own errors (Claude, withdrawn and corrected):
  • RT-21 分诊给联合模拟用了真背景，目录只能用 emldetect 的估计背景——"在噪声内复现目录 6–10 亏损"因此撤回，差 3–4.5 %（07 R015；reviews/RT-23_triage_claude.md）。The RT-21 triage gave the joint simulation the true background while the catalogue can only use emldetect's estimated background — so "reproduces the catalogue 6–10 deficit within noise" is withdrawn, with a 3–4.5 % gap (07 R015; reviews/RT-23_triage_claude.md).
  • M31 一文的"图在 50 % 处偏保守"（07 R010）与 RT-19 的"1.33–1.46\(\times\)"（07 R016）都已撤回：前者方向写反，后者的匹配阈值假设了 n = 9。The M31 report's "the map is conservative at 50 %" (07 R010) and RT-19's "1.33–1.46\(\times\)" (07 R016) are both withdrawn: the first had the direction backwards, the second's matched threshold assumed n = 9.
  • T217 的"捕获通量"归因（约 10 %）撤回，换成两个方向相反的效应（07 R017；reviews/RT-22_triage_claude.md）。T217's "captured flux" attribution (about 10 %) is withdrawn in favour of two opposite effects (07 R017; reviews/RT-22_triage_claude.md).
  • T13_006 的三句读法（"三位小数吻合"、"D 高估 30 %"、"即 15 % 左尾"）撤回（07 R014）。Three sentences of the T13_006 reading ("matches to three decimals", "D over-fits by 30 %", "the same population as the 15 % left tail") are withdrawn (07 R014).
• T13 第 7 阶段会话两次被拒绝文本中断（NIM F021），已按 PID 文件换新会话；virgo 上的隔离运行驱动器不重启。The T13 stage-7 session was cut off twice by a canned refusal text (NIM F021); a new session was started by PID file and the virgo isolation-run driver is not restarted.
• Lang3 负载 89 %（其他项目），Q1 的跟进口径打分任务已就绪但未派发。Lang3 load is 89 % (other projects), so the Q1 follow-up scoring job is ready but not dispatched.

待 PI 决定 / For the PIFor the PI

• M31 灵敏度图要告知 PI（涉及 PI 的 NEWANGLES-II 灵敏度图）：此前的数字已撤回、现为 Questioned / 待定；请 PI 确认图的 \(\Delta C_A\) 等于 \(\lambda\) 还是 \(n+2+\lambda\)。The M31 sensitivity map must be told to the PI (it concerns their NEWANGLES-II map): the earlier numbers are withdrawn and the map is Questioned / Pending; please confirm whether the map's \(\Delta C_A\) is \(\lambda\) or \(n+2+\lambda\).
• 高 S 总体（C-all-hi / C-iso-hi，S 上限 4000）已批准进层定义，但作业尚未开跑 → 待定 / Pending。The high-S population (C-all-hi / C-iso-hi, S cap 4000) is approved for the layer definitions but the job has not run yet → Pending.
• 无其他待决事项（附录基线登记已完成）。Nothing else pending (the appendix baseline registration is done).

2026-10-16 晚间2026-10-16 (evening)

RT-25 与 RT-26 已分诊（07 R018/R019），RT-27 分诊 T13 第 7 阶段第 1、3 部分（07 R021）。每条数字都从 cited 记录里原样抄来。RT-25 and RT-26 triaged (07 R018/R019); RT-27 triages T13 stage-7 parts 1 and 3 (07 R021). Every number is copied verbatim from the cited record.

成果 / ResultsResults

• Q1 回到开放：闭合未证。Q1 is back to open: closure not shown. 按模拟自己的口径，目录是 −9.282 % [−9.350, −9.219]（OBS_ID bootstrap 16–84 %，11,401 个观测），不是 −10.4 %；差距 3.39 %（A）/ 1.85 %（B）。试点与目录不匹配：b \(\approx\) 0.028 恒定对目录 0.02→0.14，两个 6–10 窗口因此落在不同 \(\hat{S}\)（试点 7.3–8.5，目录 9.5–13），匹配 \(\hat{S}\) 后差 4–6 %；试点的亏损到 \(\hat{S}\) > 30 消失（模拟 +0.8 % 在 60–400）而目录停在 −7.1 %；试点 \(L_{2d}/\mu\) 5.0 % 对目录 9.8 %（均值之比）/ 8.3 %（和之比）。恒等式 L2d \(\approx\) 2(1−w) 两边都成立（1.6475 对 1.6489）。open（闭合未证）；T210 的亏损本身仍 Provisional，比较性说法 Questioned（收窄）。来源：07 R019；reviews/RT-26_triage_claude.md。 Under the simulation's own convention the catalogue is −9.282 % [−9.350, −9.219] (OBS_ID bootstrap 16–84 %, 11,401 observations), not −10.4 %; the gap is 3.39 % (A) / 1.85 % (B). The pilot is not matched to the catalogue: b \(\approx\) 0.028 flat against 0.02→0.14, so the two 6–10 windows sit at different \(\hat{S}\) (pilot 7.3–8.5, catalogue 9.5–13) and the gap is 4–6 % at matched \(\hat{S}\); the pilot's deficit vanishes by \(\hat{S}\) > 30 (sim +0.8 % at 60–400) while the catalogue stays at −7.1 %; the pilot's \(L_{2d}/\mu\) is 5.0 % against the catalogue's 9.8 % (mean of ratios) / 8.3 % (sum/sum). The identity L2d \(\approx\) 2(1−w) holds on both sides (1.6475 vs 1.6489). open (closure not shown); T210's loss itself stays Provisional and the comparison claim is Questioned (narrowed). Sources: 07 R019; reviews/RT-26_triage_claude.md.
• 附录基线的措辞收窄（分数与前沿不变）。The appendix baseline's wording is narrowed (scores and fronts unchanged). 0.44 的均值分数优势只对被每个前沿条目全面压制的 V4c_no_eta 成立（均值分数上排 9 个里的第 8）；对前沿上最好的均值分数条目，appendix_eff 反而更差（C-iso 0.1527 对 0.1321，C-all 差 0.12 / 0.11）；它靠宽度上前沿。appendix_psfgen（均值分数 0.9955）只是宽度参考点，在 C-iso 上因宽度并列被排除，必须标为"不参与竞争"。登记的窗口只有 6–10、10–20、> 20；−0.33 … −0.06 的五窗口剖面是 RT-17 的重新计分，不是登记产品。前沿用原始分数，头条值用噪声校正。Provisional（T216）。来源：07 R018；reviews/RT-25_triage_claude.md。 The 0.44 mean-score edge is only against V4c_no_eta, which every front entry dominates (rank 8 of 9 on the mean score); against the front's best mean-score entry appendix_eff is worse (C-iso 0.1527 vs 0.1321; C-all worse by 0.12 / 0.11) and earns its seat on width. appendix_psfgen (mean score 0.9955) is a width-only reference point, excluded on C-iso by a width tie, and must be marked non-competing. The registered windows are 6–10, 10–20 and > 20 only; the −0.33 … −0.06 five-window profile is RT-17 re-scoring, not a registered product. The fronts use raw scores; the headline values are noise-corrected. Provisional (T216). Sources: 07 R018; reviews/RT-25_triage_claude.md.
• T13 第 7 阶段第 1、3 部分：近邻效应是目录级的、符号稳。T13 stage-7 parts 1 and 3: the neighbour dependence is catalogue-wide and robust in sign. 典型 DET_ML > 300（5,315 行、2,418 个观测）：近行（DIST_NN < 40″）占 N 的 18.0 %，占相对亏损 sum(−r) 的 0.472 [0.440, 0.505]、占缺失计数的 0.455 [0.417, 0.493]（RT-32 复核 R027：这是尾部加权份额，对每行亏损封顶后为 0.24–0.42，同一观测内 0.66，不能读作邻居造成的份额）；近行平均 r −0.139 对远行 −0.034。亏损集中在亮近邻：按近邻流量三分位，中位 r 从 −0.094 / −0.115 / −0.163（6–10）到 −0.032 / −0.054 / −0.187（> 300）；< 20″ 格子里暗半 −0.138、亮半 −0.308。Spearman \(\rho\) +0.94 … +1.00，p \(\leq\) 0.005。worker 原来的"16.4 %、不是近邻效应"读法已撤回（那是 sum(1+r)，是恢复比例而非亏损）。Provisional（T223 扩大）；T224 记录目录级结果。第 2 部分等 virgo 驱动。待定 / Pending。来源：07 R021；reviews/RT-27_triage_claude.md。 At typical DET_ML > 300 (5,315 rows, 2,418 observations): near rows (DIST_NN < 40″) are 18.0 % of N and carry 0.472 [0.440, 0.505] of the relative deficit sum(−r) and 0.455 [0.417, 0.493] of the missing counts (RT-32 recheck, R027: a tail-weighted share — 0.24–0.42 when each row's deficit is capped, 0.66 within observation; not the share the neighbour causes); mean r is −0.139 near against −0.034 far. The depth is concentrated in bright neighbours: by neighbour-flux tercile the median r runs −0.094 / −0.115 / −0.163 (6–10) and −0.032 / −0.054 / −0.187 (> 300); in the < 20″ cell the faint half is −0.138 and the bright half −0.308. Spearman \(\rho\) +0.94 … +1.00, p \(\leq\) 0.005. The worker's earlier "16.4 %, not a neighbour effect" reading is withdrawn (that was sum(1+r), a recovered fraction). Provisional (T223 widened); T224 records the catalogue-wide result. Part 2 waits for the virgo driver. Pending. Sources: 07 R021; reviews/RT-27_triage_claude.md.
• M31 图：数字不稳定，改为 Questioned。The M31 map: the numbers are not stable, now Questioned. RT-24 复核审计：S50 随 n 约定跨 0.89–0.99、随分箱跨 0.80–0.99；S90 超出不能由泊松散布解释：精确非中心 \(\chi^{2}\)（均值 \(n+2+\lambda\)）展宽后，S90 仍是确定性值的 0.93–0.97，S50 约 0.78–0.82，且取决于图的 \(\Delta C_A\) 是 \(\lambda\) 还是 \(n+2+\lambda\)（待 PI 确认；此前的 94 / 81 / 43 % 是我把高斯放错了中心，已撤回，07 R023）；2 像素匹配切分让 S90 最多动 0.19。存活的是 n 约定（复现到 2–4e-7）、S90 超出的方向、1.33–1.46 的撤回。图与合并表无法用交付的代码重建（psf 网格缺失、脚本版本）。Questioned（T218 Q3；Q5 open）。不得再写 S50 准到 1–5 % / S90 偏乐观 11–20 %。待定 / Pending。来源：07 R020；reviews/RT-24_triage_claude.md。 RT-24 rechecks the audit: S50 spans 0.89–0.99 over the n convention and 0.80–0.99 over binning; the Poisson spread does not explain the S90 excess: with the exact noncentral \(\chi^{2}\) (mean \(n+2+\lambda\)) S90 stays at 0.93–0.97 of the deterministic value and S50 near 0.78–0.82, and this depends on whether the map's \(\Delta C_A\) is \(\lambda\) or \(n+2+\lambda\) (to be confirmed by the PI; the earlier 94 / 81 / 43 % came from a Gaussian centred in the wrong place and is withdrawn, 07 R023), and the 2-pix match cut moves S90 by up to 0.19. What survives: the n convention (reproduces to 2–4e-7), the direction of the S90 excess, and the withdrawal of 1.33–1.46. The map and the merged table cannot be regenerated from the delivered code (psf grid absent; script version). Questioned (T218 Q3; Q5 open). The "S50 to 1–5 % / S90 optimistic by 11–20 %" wording must not be used again. Pending. Sources: 07 R020; reviews/RT-24_triage_claude.md.

工作 / WorkWork

• RT-25 分诊（07 R018，2 项实质、3 项次要、1 项信息；重放 3/3）；RT-26 分诊（07 R019，4 项实质、1 项次要；重放 4/4，核网格 b 范围由我核对）；RT-27 分诊（07 R021，3 项实质、2 项次要；重放 3/3 脚本加读 s7_part3.py:183-185 的 bug）。RT-27 于 21:39:10Z 启动，22:24Z 出报告。RT-25 triaged (07 R018: 2 material, 3 minor, 1 info; 3 of 3 replayed); RT-26 triaged (07 R019: 4 material, 1 minor; 4 of 4 replayed, the kernel grid's b range checked by me); RT-27 triaged (07 R021: 3 material, 2 minor; 3 of 3 scripted checks plus the bug read at s7_part3.py:183-185). RT-27 launched 21:39:10Z and reported at 22:24Z.
• T13 第 7 阶段第 3 个会话（PID 1795282）约 21:30Z 主动退出：第 1、3 部分已写入 checkpoint（状态行"DRAFT … part 2 pending"），第 2 部分等 virgo 驱动（21:30Z 时 152/234 幅图像，ETA \(\approx\) 23:40Z）。T13 stage-7 session 3 (PID 1795282) exited on purpose at \(\approx\)21:30Z: parts 1 and 3 are in the checkpoint (status line "DRAFT … part 2 pending"); part 2 waits for the virgo driver (152 of 234 images at 21:30Z, ETA \(\approx\) 23:40Z).
• 08_RUNNING.md 升到 rev 12；02 Q1 改为 open（闭合未证）、Q5 改为 open（数字不稳定）。08_RUNNING.md moves to revision 12; 02's Q1 becomes open (closure not shown) and Q5 open (numbers not stable).

问题 / ProblemsProblems

• 我自己的错误：−10.4 % 的目录数字不可复现——它硬编码在 rt23_nofilter.py:73，来自 T11 13c / RT-21 的表，行集（13c 的 C-iso60 选择）从未重新推导。改为 −9.282 % [−9.350, −9.219]，Q1 随之回到开放，3–4.5 % 的差距说法撤回。My own error: the −10.4 % catalogue number is not reproducible — it was hard-coded in rt23_nofilter.py:73 from the T11 13c / RT-21 table, and its row set (the C-iso60 selection of 13c) was never re-derived. It becomes −9.282 % [−9.350, −9.219], Q1 goes back to open, and the "3–4.5 % gap" wording is withdrawn.
• T13 第 7 阶段 worker 的份额读法用错了统计量：0.164 是 sum(1+r)（恢复比例），不是亏损份额；s7_part3.py:183-185 已定位，第 2 部分 worker 须改成亏损 = −r 并重写该段。The T13 stage-7 worker's share reading used the wrong statistic: 0.164 is sum(1+r), a recovered fraction, not a share of the deficit; the bug is at s7_part3.py:183-185 and the part-2 worker must correct it (deficit = −r) and rewrite that paragraph.
• 三个 NIM 模型会话在同一晚先后中断并重启（两次"Sorry, I can't help with this."式的提前退出加一次无输出停滞）。已按既有处置换成新会话继续，未丢失已写入 checkpoint 的部分；不记录主机、端口或密钥。Three NIM-model sessions ended abruptly the same evening and were restarted (two early exits of the "Sorry, I can't help with this." kind plus one silent stall). Each was replaced by a fresh session as before; nothing already written to a checkpoint was lost. Hosts, ports and keys are not recorded.

待 PI 决定 / For the PIFor the PI

• M31 灵敏度图是 PI 的图：按更正后的读法告知（S50 数字不稳定、S90 超出的原因未定（泊松散布不能解释，R023），1.33–1.46 已撤回），并排队一次带随机探测模型的完备度比较。The M31 sensitivity map is the PI's: tell them with the corrected reading (S50 not stable, the cause of the S90 excess undecided (Poisson spread does not explain it, R023), 1.33–1.46 withdrawn) and queue a completeness comparison with the stochastic detection model.
• Q1 的决定性下一步（按目录给定的 \(\hat{S}\) 采 b 的联合模拟，或对现有行按 b 重加权，按 \(\hat{S}\) 分箱在所有窗口用估计背景计分）需要 virgo 产能；brief 待负载允许后写，替换 08 §5 里的"Q1 跟进出口"。Q1's decisive next step (a joint simulation sampling the catalogue's b given \(\hat{S}\), or reweighting the existing rows by b, scored per \(\hat{S}\) bin over all windows with the estimated background) needs virgo capacity; the brief is written when load allows and replaces the "Q1 follow-up" entry in 08 §5.